Sunday Night Football: Patriots vs. Broncos Free NFL Picks

David Lawrence

Friday, November 27, 2015 7:25 PM GMT

Unbeaten Patriots face the 8-2 Broncos in a week 12 matchup that looked much different when the schedule was made up. Brady will be under center for New England, but Manning won't be for Denver.

***Patriots vs. Broncos Totals NFL Picks***

 

Opening Odds & Line Movement
Open: -3.5 -105 at Pinnacle
The NFL odds opened up with the Patriots as a 3.5-point favorites on the road on Sunday night, then the line moved down to -3 and then -2.5. It moved back up to -3 for the Patriots, who beat Buffalo 20-13 on Monday night to move to 10-0 and they continue to battle injuries. For all the talk about their Brady-led offense, the defense has allowed 13 points or less in three of their four games, playing better as the offense has suffered a slew of injuries. Speaking of injuries, the Broncos sat Manning with a foot injury, but really, it was coming as he was playing terribly. In stepped Brock Osweiler, who played well in a 17-15 win in Chicago to stop a two-game skid. Osweiler wasn't Manning in his prime, but he threw two touchdowns and more importantly, no picks. Manning had thrown 17 interceptions this season, including multiple interceptions in five games. While Brady-Manning is an annual tradition in the NFL, Manning was simply playing too bad to let this go on. The Patriots have slowed down a little offensively, but they'll still be a test for Denver's top-ranked defense.

 

Patriots vs. Broncos Spread

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Patriots vs. Broncos Totals

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Patriots vs. Broncos Money Line

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Injuries
RB Dion Lewis went down with his knee injury, then WR Julian Edelman with his foot. Now, WR Danny Amendola is unlikely to play on Sunday night because of his knee as he didn't practice on Wednesday. WR Aaron Dobson is also unlikely to play with a bad ankle. How many players will Denver put on TE Rob Gronkowski? The Patriots are running out of receivers.

Manning is out for the next two weeks, at least, because of his foot. Again, it was a move that was a long time coming. DE DeMarcus Ware didn't practice due to his back and is unlikely to play, but WR Emmanuel Sanders did practice with an ailing ankle. 

 

Trends
The Patriots are 5-2-3 ATS this season, going 2-2 ATS, while Denver is 5-4-1 ATS and 2-2 ATS at home. The total opened at 46 and has gone all the way down to 43, and the Broncos have gone under five times with two pushes. The Patriots have gone under five times as well.

The Broncos are 4-6 SU and ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Patriots, who are 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 trips to Denver.

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