Sunday Night Football should be a good game if the Broncos can amass some offense, and with those questions comes prop value if you know how the game script is going to play out. Bovada has some good values tonight, and I have my favorite to release to you free of charge!
Even though the Broncos have been pretty good against opposing quarterbacks this season, Tom Brady is on another level from most of the QBs the Broncos have faced so far this season.
Even though Denver hasn’t allowed more than 249 passing yards to a team this season, they have also given up 7.3 yards per pass attempt over their last 3 games, and last week against Carson Wentz and the Eagles, they gave up 234 yards on just 28 attempts.
Brady is averaging over 38 pass attempts per game this season, and he has touched 40-plus attempts in three games. He is averaging nearly 39 pass attempts in road contests this season too, so for this offense, I expect them to throw the ball regardless of the team they are facing.
Danny Amendola is expected to play this week, which is nice for this offense, but when it comes to moving the ball, Rob Gronkowski is going to be the key cog for Brady tonight. The Broncos have been very bad defending tight ends (more on this in a minute) and if Gronkowski can collect 80 to 100 yards, Brady is easily going over 275.Free NFL Pick: Over 275½Best Line Offered: Bovada Rob Gronkowski O/U 65 ½ Receiving Yards
If there is one guy who is important to our prop NFL picks tonight, it’s Rob Gronkowski. If he is able to put up a big game for the Patriots, not only do I think we’ll cash Brady’s prop odds, but Gronk’s odds of just 65½ yards seems pretty low against a team like the Broncos.
While Denver’s defense has been good against opposing receivers, defending tight ends has been a struggle at times. The Broncos have allowed 623 yards to opposing tight ends this season, which is second worst in the league.
On top of that, they have allowed 213 of those yards in just the last two weeks, and they have given up five touchdowns to tight ends, with three of those TDs coming within the last four weeks.
Gronk is a different type of animal, and if I’m the Patriots, I’m throwing him the ball all game. I expect at least 10 targets for the big man tonight, and I am banking on about 80 yards and a touchdown.Free NFL Pick: Over 65½Best Line Offered: Bovada