Time is running out for us to make our final NFL picks for Week 14. We've got two more plays to consider before you finalize everything.
The Vikings (3-8-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) pay a visit to Baltimore to face off against the Ravens (6-6 SU, 6-6 AS) this week. The NFL odds have the home team favored by almost a touchdown.
Home and away splits favor Baltimore by a large margin.
The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at M&T Bank Stadium this season, while the Vikings are 0-5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road. Baltimore has won three in a row at home, which includes wins over Cincinnati (20-17), Pittsburgh (22-20) and the New York Jets (19-3).
While we think the Ravens will do enough to win straight up, we believe this is too many points they're giving away to a Minnesota team that's been playing better lately.
The Vikings have really been battling over the last month or so. They barely lost at Dallas (27-23) and then fell to the Seahawks in Seattle, but they've beaten Washington (34-27) and Chicago (23-20) and tied Green Bay (26-26) as well.
Bad weather is expected on Sunday and we can therefore expect to see more cautious approaches offensively in hopes of avoiding turnovers. That would play into Minnesota's hands, who were already planning on letting Adrian Peterson run wild anyway. The more touches he gets, the better it will be for the Vikings. It's as simple as that.
As we said, Baltimore will likely survive and win, but we foresee this being closer than people think. Maybe a field goal will separate these teams, so let's take those points and roll with the underdogs.
NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings +6.5
Our other preferred play of the day comes on another road dog. We'll be siding with Matt Ryan and the Falcons to play well enough to cover at Lambeau Field.
We see Atlanta getting three points from NFL oddsmakers, while the O/U ranges from 44.5 to 45. On the year, the Falcons are 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS, while the Packers are 5-6-1 SU and 5-7 ATS.
Green Bay has been off since a 40-10 loss to Detroit on Thanksgiving, so they've had more than enough time to prepare for this visit of Atlanta.
The Packers have failed to protect their usual home-field advantage lately though, having gone 0-2-1 over their previous three matchups. They had that tie with the Vikings but then lost to Chicago (27-20) and Philadelphia (27-13).
Clearly this is a team that's struggling to stay afloat without Aaron Rodgers out there running the show. Matt Flynn has been terrible and that's being nice, so it will be interesting to see if he can match Matt Ryan's effectiveness this Sunday.
The Falcons showed signs of life last week, beating Buffalo in overtime. This came after a tough game against New Orleans in which they lost by four points. After some of the results we've seen out of Atlanta this season, it's safe to say they've been playing better.
Ryan has the edge over Flynn here and this Falcons offense is finally healthy and playing better. Meanwhile, the Packers can't do anything with Flynn under center. With that in mind, we believe the wrong team is favored and will therefore take the points once again for our NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3.5