The Packers are a heavy public play and that's a little scary, but we don't see them having too many issues against the Vikings.
Minnesota, a team that's gone 2-4 ATS on the season, has lost its last two games by a combined 41 points. They fell to Carolina by 25 at home and lost to the previously winless New York Giants by 16 on the road.
The quarterback situation is a mess. Josh Freeman was brutal in his first start but will miss this Sunday's game. In steps Christian Ponder, who can't be too pleased with what's been going on.
So, even though Green Bay is dealing with some key injuries, we believe they'll cover here on the road as favorites. The NFL betting lines right now have the Packers favored by at least a touchdown, with some books offering up a spread of nine points.
As you can see, Green Bay keeps chugging along no matter who's injured. They've now won three straight games, while covering the spread in all three victories. Last weekend they were 7.5-point chalk against Cleveland and ended up winning 31-13 at home. Easy cover there.
No Randall Cobb. No James Jones. And an injury to Jermichael Finley. It didn't matter. Jordy Nelson and Jarrett Boykin stepped up and made plays and Eddie Lacy ran hard. When you've got a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, it makes it a lot easier though.
That's one of the biggest reasons why we like Green Bay. This is about as big of a mismatch as you'll find in terms of QB play. It's a lot of points, but we think the Packers are the right side.
NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers -8
Like the Vikings, we struggle to see how the Redskins will be able to stay with the Broncos offensively. They may have dropped a ton of points on Chicago, but the Bears are banged up and it's unlikely they'll be able to be so efficient once again.
When you're facing a guy like Peyton Manning, you have to be at your very best if you're trying for the win.
Manning has completed 71.6 percent of his passes for 2,565 yards and has already thrown 25 touchdown passes, while getting picked off only three times. He has a rating of 123.3 and a QBR of 87.1.
With Manning leading the way, Denver has the number one spot locked down in terms of total offense. They're averaging 361.3 passing yards per game, easily the best number in the NFL, and have been middle-of-the-road at running the ball (108.0 YPG, #16).
The Redskins do have playmakers, don't get me wrong, but it's hard to stack up to Denver in that regard. RGIII is going to have to make every possession count if they want to stay close.
The Broncos are ranked #30 in total defense, but what does that matter when you have the best quarterback around running the show? Denver seems like they're going to score every time they get the ball, and we're finding it really tough not to lay the number again for our NFL Picks.
With that said, let's take the Broncos to cover the large number at home, as they look to bounce back after being handed their first loss of the season.
NFL Pick: Denver Broncos -11