Strong Home Field & Momentum make Cardinals (-4.5) our NFL Pick

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, November 22, 2015 2:22 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 2:22 PM UTC

Our NFL handicapper examines Sunday’s game between the Bengals and Cardinals. Join us in reading this revealing betting preview article that concludes with his point spread pick.

Bengals and Cardinals on Sunday Night
The Arizona Cardinals (7-2) and Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) square off on the NBC Sunday Night Football matchup. The opening kickoff in Glendale, Arizona is slated for 8:30 PM ET. Consensus NFL betting odds at the time of this writing (11/20) has Arizona as a 4.5 point favorite, and the posted total is 49.0. The last time these teams played each other was in 2011, and it’s just their second meeting since 2007.


Bengals Magic disappeared on Monday Night
The Cincinnati Bengals entered last Monday’s nationally televised game against Houston riding high. After all, they were 8-0 and a double digit home favorite, versus a 3-5 Houston Texans team that was 6-17 in their last 23 away games. However, they were flat as an ironing board throughout that contest, and came up on the short end of a 10-6 final score. It was just the 3rd regular season home loss they suffered in their last 22 games at Paul Brown Stadium. This will be an extremely rare situation on Sunday night, and history certainly isn’t on the Bengals side. Since 1980, any team coming off their first loss of the season, and they’re an underdog in Game 10 or beyond, resulted in that team going 0-3 SU&ATS, and lost by an average of 14.0 points per contest.


Strong Home Field
Arizona feels as if like they supplanted the Seahawks as the new king of the NFC West as a result of last Sunday’s 39-32 win at Seattle. The Seahawks had been the division champs in each of the past two seasons, advanced to the Super Bowl on both occasions, and won the 2014 Vince Lombardi Trophy. By virtue of that win, Arizona holds a comfortable 3.0 game lead over both St. Louis and Seattle with seven weeks left in the regular season. Considering four of their final seven games are at home where they’ve gone 16-4 since 2013, the Cardinals appear to be in a very comfortable position. Arizona is an outstanding 9-1 SU&ATS the past two seasons at home in games 2 through 14, versus an opponent with a better than .333 winning percentage.


NFL Betting Angle
Any home team playing in Game 5 of the season or beyond, coming off an away underdog straight up win, and both teams have a winning percentage of .750 or better, resulted in the home team going 21-4 ATS (84%) since 1987. All of my arrows point towards Arizona and one of my NFL picks on Sunday will follow suit.

NFL Pick: Play on the Arizona Cardinals -4.5 at 5Dimes

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