Strong Betting Trends Make Titans -4 the Pick Over Cowboys

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, September 12, 2014 8:00 PM GMT

NFL betting trends point to the matchup between teh Cowboys and Titans as one that will offer great betting value in Week 2. Find out why we are all in on the Titans at -4 with our picks Sunday afternoon.

A quick review of the introduction to my NFL Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter will isolate 3 important factors that have been keys to my success when isolating of my NFL picks are worthy of being called STEAMROLLERS.  These facts include: any NFL team who outrushes their opponent by 30 or more yards in a given game are 517-171 (75% L4Y).  These games went 9-1 ATS vs. the opening line in Week 1.  Second, playing any team who rushes the ball for 30 or more times in an NFL game, if their opponent does not is 256-60 ATS (81% L2Y) plus 13-0 ATS (100%) vs. the opening line in Week 1.  Finally, playing AGAINST any team who runs the ball 22 or less times in an NFL game, if their opponent does not has a 2 year record of 241-45 ATS (84%) plus 10-0 ATS (100%) against the opening line of Week 1 of this season.

Read Another Pick in Favor of the Titans -4 Over Cowboys

The Cowboys continued to struggle in their opening week loss to San Francisco.  Off-season surgery led Romo to inconsistent form in preseason play, as well as last week (3 INTs).  For all the former talk about this being America’s team, under 4th year HC Garrett, the Cowboys recorded their 3rd consecutive 8-8 season in 2013.  Most disturbing is the fact that in 2012, they were outrushed 124/4.5 to 79/3.6 and that in 2013 they were outrushed 128/4.7 to 94/4.5.  In those two seasons combined, Dallas has allowed an average of 26 PPG.  No surprise, it has been since 2009 that they have recorded a winning mark.  In the opening game (28-17) loss to the 49ers, they were again pillaged at the point of attack, allowing the 49ers to run 30 times for 127 yards.  This will be bad news against Tennessee.

 

New Tennessee HC Whisenhunt, along with his DC Horton, paid immediate dividends for the Titans in their Game 1 (26-10) romp of KC.  It was reminiscent of the improvement this duo recorded in their 3 years together at Arizona.  Aided by a +3 net TO margin, the Titans ran 38 times for 162 yards, while holding the Chiefs to 17 running attempts for just 67 yards.  Following these sports betting trends will get you the money in the NFL over 95% of the time. 

 

Must stay with the momentum of Week 1 at this value price for the home team in a game where it will be no surprise to this handicapper if the Titans use their superior running game and defense to STEAMROLL the Cowboys into submission, resulting in a comfortable double digit victory while easily covering the NFL odds.

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