Steelers-Jaguars NFL Picks Using 84.2% Preseason Betting Angle

Ross Benjamin

Friday, August 14, 2015 1:41 PM GMT

Friday, Aug. 14, 2015 1:41 PM GMT

Our NFL handicapping professional went 2-0-1 in Thursday’s preseason action. He provides us with a revealing betting preview article which covers Friday’s game between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.

NFL Odds for Jags vs. Steelers in Jacksonville on Friday
Jacksonville will host Pittsburgh in their preseason opener on Friday. The opening kickoff at EverBank Field is slated for 7:30 PM ET. According to current NFL betting odds at Pinnacle, this is a pick game, and the posted total is 36.5.  This will mark the first ever preseason meeting between these two AFC teams.


Second vs. First Game NFL Preseason Theory
One of the more proven and successful NFL preseason betting angles, involves a team playing in their second game, versus an opponent in its opener. Such is the case in this Steelers and Jaguars matchup on Friday. Pittsburgh was a 14-3 loser to Minnesota in the annual “Hall of Fame Game” last Sunday. Pittsburgh failed to cover as a 3.0 point underdog, and the game easily went under the total of 36.5. Now let’s take a look at some raw data pertaining to this exact scenario.

The most basic parameter pertaining to this betting theory, shows teams in their second game versus opponents playing its preseason opener are 72-43 (62.6%) straight up since 1983. Keep in mind, the point spread in this Preseason contest tonight is a pick, and consequently the straight up results take on added significance. If those teams are coming off a loss in their first game, they’ve gone 36-19 (65.5%) straight up since 1987. If that previous loss occurred specifically in the “Hall of Fame Game” in Canton, and they’re +3.0 to -3.0 in their second game, this betting system is 16-3 SU & ATS (84.2%) since 1986.


Head Coaches
Mike Tomlin enters into his ninth year as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are 18-16 straight up, 14-20 ATS, and are 22-12 (64.7%) under the total in preseason games under Tomlin. As a matter of fact, Pittsburgh has gone a futile 1-8 SU&ATS during their previous nine preseason games.

Gus Bradley is in his third season as head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville is 2-6 straight up and 4-4 ATS in preseason games during Bradley’s first two years. They’ve also gone 6-2 under the total in those contests, and that includes playing below the number in their last five preseason games.


Final Analysis
Neither one of these head coaches have shown much success during preseason games in recent years. I’m subscribing to the theory of wagering on teams playing their second game, versus opponents in their preseason opener. My lean in today’s game is on the visiting side for one of my NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Play the Steelers as a pick

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