Steelers Giving Two Touchdowns Yet Will Cover vs. Packers

steelers packers

David Schwab

Friday, November 24, 2017 5:08 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 24, 2017 5:08 PM UTC

The 5-5 Green Bay Packers travel to Heinz Field to clash against the 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers in an 8:30 p.m. (ET) Sunday start on NBC. The Packers have lost three of four, while Pittsburgh looks to extend its five-game winning streak.

Free NFL Pick: Steelers -14Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 43)

It has been a tale of two seasons for Green Bay: The 4-1 start with Aaron Rodgers under center and the 1-4 slide with him out of the lineup. The 5-5 record has the Packers clearly on the outside looking in as far this year’s field for the NFC playoffs. Green Bay is 4-6 against the spread and the total has stayed UNDER in three of its last five games. It heads into Pittsburgh with a 2-4 record ATS when closing as an underdog.

Brett Hundley continues to get the call in Rodgers’ absence, and the results have been disastrous at best. Last Sunday may have been rock-bottom in a 23-0 loss to Baltimore in which the Packers turned the ball over five times while racking up a total of 265 yards. Hundley was picked off three times while also losing a fumble.

The Steelers remained neck-and-neck with New England in the AFC at 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) with last Thursday’s 40-17 convincing victory against Tennessee as 7-point home favorites. The Steelers have now won their last five games while going 4-1 ATS. The total went OVER 44.5 points against the Titans after it had stayed UNDER in eight of Pittsburgh’s first nine games. It is now 3-1 ATS in four home games.

The combination of Ben Roethlisberger throwing to Antonio Brown has accounted for six touchdowns this season with the last three coming in that Week 11 romp. Pittsburgh is 20th in the league in rushing with an average of 102.4 yards a game, but Le’Veon Bell is still a dangerous threat with 886 yards rushing and five scores. The biggest reason for the Steelers’ success is a shutdown defense that is ranked second in the NFL in points allowed (16.5).

Game Betting Trends
  • The Packers have failed to cover in their last four games against a team with a SU winning record and they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven November games.
  • The Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games coming off a cover in their previous outing. They are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 12 and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 13 games played in Week 12 of the season.
  • Pittsburgh has a 4-1 edge SU in the last five meetings while also covering ATS in three of those games. The total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings.

The Verdict

Do not let the huge spread at on the SBR NFL odds page for this game fool you. The current gap between these two teams is that wide. Green Bay’s issues have expanded to every phase of the game, while the Steelers’ current form has them headed for a huge showdown at home against New England in mid-December for the top seed in the AFC. My top NFL pick for Sunday night is Pittsburgh covering the 14 points at home in another lopsided victory. The bold play would be to parlay this pick with the UNDER 43 on the total line.

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