Sportsbook Review uses cookies to help us provide, protect & improve our services in accordance with our Privacy & Cookies policy, which includes details of how you can change your cookie settings.

Top Steelers vs. Chiefs Prop Picks for Wild Card Weekend

profile image of jonmetler
Top Steelers vs. Chiefs Prop Picks for Wild Card Weekend
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill runs with the football during the fourth quarter against the Dallas Cowboys. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images via AFP.

A rematch of the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup from Week 16 takes place on Wild Card Weekend with the latter being 12.5-point home favorites. We’ve selected our best Steelers-Chiefs NFL prop picks for the game.

This one is being marketed as Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement party, and the Steelers quarterback joked about his team being a huge underdog and having no chance. Could Roethlisberger turn this reverse psychology strategy into a victory against the spread?

Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s injury last week made it frustrating for his backers, as he missed a large portion of the game due to a heel ailment. However, don’t ignore the Pro Bowl wideout’s odds this week.

Here are my top prop picks for the matchup between the Steelers and Chiefs (odds via Barstool Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Steelers vs. Chiefs Prop Picks

Tyreek Hill anytime touchdown scorer (+100) ★★★★
Steelers alternate spread +7.5 (+155) ★★★
Najee Harris first Steelers touchdown scorer (+375) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks Roundup

Steelers vs. Chiefs Prop Predictions

Hill anytime TD (+100)

You're getting a better price on this prop than you should because of Hill's injury last week. However, you shouldn't be worried about his health. He practiced fully on Wednesday and Friday and logged a limited session Thursday.

He has no injury designation heading into Wild Card Weekend. FanDuel agrees that the +100 at Barstool is too long, as the former has a Hill touchdown at -155. For those without a Barstool account, DraftKings Sportsbook lists Hill as -105 to find the endzone.

Steelers alternate spread +7.5 (+155)

We've all seen Roethlisberger play this season, but that doesn't mean the Steelers don't have a chance in this game. Sure, Harris might have to see a chiropractor on Monday after carrying the offense, but it will be the defense that covers this number for the Steelers.

People are so focused on the incompetence of Roethlisberger that they forget Defensive Player of the Year candidate T.J. Watt is a member of Pittsburgh's defense. The Steelers have enough talented athletes on that side of the ball to disrupt Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense.

Chiefs -12.5 is too many points for the opening number, so I'm looking at the alternate spread of +7.5 at +155 instead of the full +12.5 at -110. If you like betting against what others are, this is the bet for you because 70% of the cash and 68% of the tickets are on the Chiefs. BetMGM has the most favorable odds for the Steelers at +155 on the alternate spread of +7.5. Other sportsbooks have the Steelers at +145.

Harris first Steelers TD (+375)

Harris has 17 carries and six targets inside the 10-yard line for the Steelers this season, while Diontae Johnson has only 10 targets. Take into account the difference in opportunities to score and consider that Johnson's a +350 wager at DraftKings to score Pittsburgh's first touchdown, while Harris is a +375 wager at BetMGM. This is a tremendous value on someone who touches the ball more often than anyone else when the Steelers are close to the end zone.

At DraftKings, Harris is as low as +220 to score the first Steelers touchdown, and I wouldn't be interested in him at that price. The value of this bet lies in the generous +375 BetMGM has posted.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Steelers-Chiefs prop picks made on 1/15/2022 at 11:42 a.m. ET.