The Pittsburgh Steelers seek to stay perfect on the road as the Cleveland Browns look to rebound after their unfathomable collapse against the New York Jets. Here are our Week 3 Steelers-Browns same-game parlay picks.
Instead of being able to bask in the glow of a 2-0 start, Cleveland is picking up the pieces after letting one slip away to Joe Flacco and the Jets in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Steelers hope to bounce back following a home loss to the New England Patriots.
Here are my same-game parlay picks for the Week 3 Steelers-Browns Thursday night matchup (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Steelers vs. Browns Same Game Parlay Picks
Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.
Steelers vs. Browns Same Game Parlay Predictions
Steelers +3.5 (-104) ★★★★
Pittsburgh is 1-0-1 against the spread in 2022, and the team won its only road game outright. The club's run defense was poor in 2021, so holding Joe Mixon to 3.0 yards per carry in Week 1 could be a positive sign heading into Thursday, when Pittsburgh will deal with Cleveland’s tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
The Steelers were 4-5 as an away underdog in 2021, but they've showed the defensive intensity to keep games close through two weeks. If Mitchell Trubisky can find a better rhythm, there's enough talent on the Steelers' offense to push for an outright win against the reeling Browns.
Though DraftKings (+4.5) offers a more favorable line on the Steelers than FanDuel (+3.5), let's prioritize the upcoming legs of the parlay and sacrifice the extra point of coverage.
Over 37.5 (-118) ★★★
Sportsbooks are projecting a defensive grind, which makes sense given the history of the AFC North rivalry. The Steelers are averaging just 20 points per game through two weeks, with the Under hitting during both of their contests. However, the Browns are one of four NFL teams to register an Over in two games.
Cleveland boasted the NFL’s second-best EPA per drive in Week 2, according to ESPN. The team ranks seventh with 28.0 points per game. The Browns have also allowed the seventh-most points to their opponents, and Flacco and Co. gashed them for 31 in Week 2. If the Steelers are ever going to break out offensively, Cleveland's defense offers a good opportunity.
DraftKings sets the total at 38.5, which eliminates scores like 21-17 or 24-14 as viable options for the Over. Go with FanDuel's 37.5 line for a more significant advantage than taking the extra point on the Steelers’ spread at DraftKings.
Johnson Over 56.5 receiving yards (-110) ★★★★
Diontae Johnson’s ability to gain separation early in his routes in 2021 made him the weak-armed Ben Roehtlisberger's favorite target. But will a Mitchell Trubisky-led offense still feature him prominently?
The answer has been a resounding yes in terms of target share. Johnson has racked up 22 of the team’s 69 total targets through two games, a 31.9% target share that lands him among the NFL's top 10. The problem for Johnson has been a lack of explosive plays. He’s finished with 55 and 57 receiving yards over his first two games.
Johnson is averaging 8.6 yards per reception in 2022, down significantly from his career average of 10.8. Though Trubisky’s inefficiency could be contributing to that shift, it’s only a matter of time before Johnson breaks out and moves back toward his career norms. Reception totals aren’t eligible for same-game parlays (Over 5.5 would be the way to go), but I'm confident enough in the consistency of Johnson's workload to bet the Over here.
FanDuel provides the offering at 56.5 receiving yards compared to DraftKings’ 59.5. Take the extra little bit of cushion.
Where to Bet on Steelers-Browns same-game parlay Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Steelers-Browns same-game parlay picks made 9/22/2022 at 1:33 p.m. ET.