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Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns runs with the ball before being tackled by D.J. Reed of the New York Jets during the first quarter.
Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns runs with the ball before being tackled by D.J. Reed of the New York Jets during the first quarter. Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images via AFP.

The Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers for Week 3's edition of Thursday Night Football with the AFC North rivals both sitting at 1-1. Read on for our Steelers-Browns picks.

Pittsburgh won both meetings with Cleveland last season. The two teams got off to successful starts to the 2022 campaign with Week 1 victories, but both suffered a frustrating loss in Week 2.

The Browns did something in Week 2 that had not happened to the previous 2,229 teams in a similar situation, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Cleveland blew a 23-point lead to the New York Jets in the final 1:22 of their Week 2 matchup. NFL teams were a combined 2,229-0 since 2001 when leading by 13 or more points in the final two minutes.

The Steelers lost 17-14 at home to the New England Patriots and have shown very little life on offense under veteran quarterback Mitch Trubisky through two games.

Here are our Steelers-Browns NFL picks for Week 3 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, Pointsbet, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Steelers vs. Browns Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Sept. 22, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Weather: 54 degrees, 16% chance of precipitation, 18-mph N wind

Steelers vs. Browns Odds Analysis

The spread opened with Cleveland at -3 but that has increased to a consensus line of -4 amid doubts around Trubisky and the Steelers' stagnant offense. Contrary to the move, 64% of tickets and 69% of the handle are backing the Steelers to cover.

The total has gone the other way from a consensus opener of 40.5 down to 38 at most sportsbooks. Bettors are aligned on the Under with 52% of the tickets accounting for 62% of the handle.

Steelers vs. Browns Picks

Steelers vs. Browns ATS Pick

Browns -4.5 (-108) ★★★

In last week’s Browns-Jets game, one could argue that the Browns should have won the game if not for a singular mistake from running back Nick Chubb.

With the Browns winning 24-17 with 2:02 left, Chubb scored a touchdown to make the score 30-17. However, if Chubb got the first down but did not score, even if he went out of bounds, Cleveland could have taken a knee for the remaining two minutes as the Jets did not have any timeouts.

Cleveland now faces a Steelers team that was pushed around by New England in its own building. The Patriots ran for 124 yards (4.0 yards per carry), and the Steelers' pass rush was non-existent in the absence of T.J. Watt, generating zero sacks and minimal quarterback pressures.

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 46-23-3 against the spread (29.4% return on investment) as an underdog and has covered all four games with an 89.9% ROI heads-up against Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski. But those Pittsburgh teams were much more talented than this Mitch Trubisky-led version, and the Browns will bully their way to a cover.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Steelers vs. Browns O/U Pick

Under 38.5 (-107) ★★★

Since 2015, Steelers road games are 39-17-1 to the Under, and the Under has cashed in seven of Cleveland’s last nine home games against Pittsburgh.

Jacoby Brissett has averaged just 188 passing yards per game thus far, while Chubb and Kareem Hunt have combined for an average of 166 yards on the ground. Thus, Brissett will likely not be asked to do much through the air. 

Pittsburgh’s offense had 12 total yards and zero first downs in their final two drives with the game on the line against New England. The Steelers crowd was already clamoring for Kenny Pickett after their first home loss since Week 3 of last season, and we should hear more noise for the rookie after another poor performance from this offense.

Steelers vs. Browns Prop Pick

Browns to score first (-140) ★★★★

Cleveland has typically started fast against division rivals, scoring the first touchdown in its last 11 home games against AFC North opponents. In addition, the Browns have been the first to 10 points in each of their previous six games as home favorites.

We expect Cleveland to play with a sense of urgency to get past last week's loss, and it will be the first team on the scoreboard.

Where to Bet on Steelers-Browns Picks

  Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:  

Steelers-Browns picks made 9/20/2022 at 6:14 a.m. ET