Steamroller Game Of The Week - Washington Redskins vs Baltimore Ravens Odds & Free Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, October 8, 2016 10:51 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 8, 2016 10:51 PM UTC

SBR professional handicapper breaks down the affair between Redskins and Ravens for his steamroller section for week 5. Join him and get ready to cash some NFL picks.


Washington Redskins vs Baltimore Ravens  

Each week in my analysis, I isolate an NFL team whom I project will either outrush the opposition by 30 or more yards, hold that opponent to 22 or less carries, or tote the ball 30 or more times themselves. The Baltimore Ravens are my selection this week as the NFL STEAMROLLER.

Though the underdog has cashed 9/11 times in Washington games and Baltimore is just 3-13 ATS as a favorite recently, there is overwhelming statistical evidence that favors Baltimore in this spot. Offsetting those previous technicals is the fact that, under HC Gruden, Washington is just 9-15 SU ATS on the non-division road, while Baltimore is 15-7 ATS at home following a home loss. With those numbers virtually offsetting each other, let’s take a look at the situational and statistical analysis to see why Baltimore is the right side in this one. 

Last week, the Redskins beat the Browns 31- 20 at their Fed Ex Field home. A closer inspection shows that the Skins were outrushed, out passed, and obviously outgained by a 380-301 margin.  Yet a (+2) net turnover margin gave them the victory. That made back to back weeks that the Skins were outgained but won the game. We want no part of a team like that. From a fundamental perspective, consider that the Skins are rushing the ball an average of only 21 times per game. Referring to this week’s article entitled “2016 NFL Teams Run to the Bank”, we find that if that happens this week, it is an 86% ATS PLAY AGAINST.  With the Ravens allowing the opposition an average of only 22 times a game, there is a good chance that will happen. 

Turning to the defensive side of the ball we find that the Redskins are allowing 133/4.9 overland, while Baltimore is allowing just 80/3.7 on the ground of their opponents. That’s all part of Baltimore’s #1 ranked NFL defense that is allowing just 256 YPG (18 PPG), far superior to the Redskins’ defense which allows 28/413.

We take the better defense, the better running game, and the reversal of outcomes from last week and make it our STEAMROLLER of the week on the Baltimore Ravens. I invite you to put the NFL betting odds in your favor and join me in  my NFL week 4 picks on the Baltimore Ravens this afternoon.


Free NFL Picks: Ravens -4
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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