Stay On Top of Opening Week 13 Line Shifts With Updated NFL Odds

Nikki Adams

Monday, November 30, 2015 3:09 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 30, 2015 3:09 PM GMT

As Monday’s action winds down, odds makers go to press with week 13’s opening NFL odds. We compare those with Advanced Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for smart NFL picks.

Advanced Lines From Westgate
Every week, Kevin Stott dissects the Advanced Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and serves up his insightful analysis and early NFL picks. In this column, we look at the direction those NFL Lines take as week 12’s round of action steadily seeps into the books. Some movements are quite striking, if not surprising.

 

Packers vs. Lions
Advanced Line Packers -6
Sunday Opening Line: -3

On the heels of yet another shock upset at Lambeau Field, the Packers see their stock value slip at sports betting exchanges. Advanced lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had the Packers installed as the 6-point road favorites last Tuesday for their week 13 clash with the Lions, a big nod that was underscored by their pivotal win over the Vikings in week 11. However, a rather shocking 17-13 loss to the Bears on Thanksgiving Day at Lambeau, the very day they honoured Brett Favre has taken the shine off of the Packers. They’ve now lost four of their last five games and slip to second place in the NFC North with a 7-4 SU mark. Of course, the NFL betting lines take stock of the Lions’ mini revival as well. They may have nothing to play for in the broad spectrum of the season, but the way they’ve rallied to win three straight games and improve to 4-7 SU on the season is nothing short of admirable. One has to respect their never-say-die attitude and the pride they’re showing, not to mention giving their beleaguered fans something to cheer about. Given the contrasting fortunes of both these teams of late, one wonders whether the Packers still deserve to be the favorites, even if they are down to just a field goal advantage. Keep in mind, the Packers lost this meeting last season. And they recently lost to the Lions at Lambeau as well.

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Ravens vs. Dolphins
Advanced Line Dolphins -6.5
Sunday Opening Line: -4.5

Although the Ravens lost Joe Flacco for the season and are yet to play Monday Night Football, Westgate rolled out with an NFL betting line on this game last Tuesday with the Dolphins favored by almost a touchdown. As Sunday’s afternoon games trickled into the books, Dolphins emerged big losers on the day’s card. Losing to the NY Jets on the road 30-22. The loss marked their second straight loss in as many weeks, fourth in their last five games. They also slipped to a 4-7 ATS mark with a 5.6-point losing margin and a negative 4.4 differential on average against the spread. In spite of this conspicuous negative trend, odds makers reopen with the Dolphins still in favor as the 4.5-point home chalk. Home advantage as well as the question marks surrounding the Ravens, now with Matt Schaub at quarterback, play a significant hand in this outlook. However, we’d wager this NFL line is going to experience notable movements as week 13 approaches.

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Falcons vs. Bucs
Advanced Line Falcons -1.5
Sunday Opening Line: Bucs -2.5

The Falcons, riding a three-game losing streak ahead of week 12, opened as the road favorites on the NFL odds board at Westgate. The same Falcons that lost 23-20 at home to the Bucs, mind. Makes sense, right? On the heels of their fourth straight loss – a 20-10 loss at home to the Vikings, all while installed as the 2-point home chalk or thereabouts depending on your sportsboos of choice – the Falcons reopen as the 2.5-point underdogs. The blinders are finally off where the Falcons are concerned. The Bucs may be coming off a 25-12 loss to the Colts on the road, but they have form behind wins in four of their last six games. So it’s no surprise odds makers jump fence here.

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Bengals vs. Browns
Advanced Line Bengals -7
Sunday Opening Line: Bengals -7

Advanced Lines had the Bengals trading on a high 7-point road chalk last Tuesday despite a two-game losing streak. NFL bettors in the know don’t even need to ask why. But for the uninitiated the simple explanation is the Browns are awful. Cincinnati underscored their top NFL betting credentials with a 31-7 win over the Rams in week 12, prompting odds makers to reopen the line on this game unmoved.

 

Jets vs. Giants
Advanced Line Giants -1.5
Sunday Opening Line: PK
NY Giants failed to come through as the 3-point road underdogs in week 12 NFL betting, succumbing to a 20-14 loss to the Redskins in the nation’s capital. They looked every part of a rusty team coming off a bye as they slipped to their second straight loss, fourth in the last six games. Still, the Giants are 6-4-1 ATS on the season with a 1.3-point winning margin and plus 2.1-point differential on average against the spread. The NY Jets are coming off a big win over the Dolphins a 38-20 win. Bookies reopen this game on a pick’em, but early NFL betting appears to be pushing the Jets into favored territory.

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Seahawks vs. Vikings
Advanced Line Seahawks -1.5
Sunday Opening Line: PK
Now, this is something few would have expected to see on the NFL odds board this season: Seahawks on a mere PK line against the Vikings on the road. Talk about how the mighty have fallen. It’s a testament to the contrasting accounts each side has deposited this season –the Vikings are 8-3 SU on the season while the Seahawks are 6-5 SU on the season. Importantly, the Vikings are punching above their weight class despite having one of the tougher NFL schedules. Both sides are coming off a wins in week 12 with the Vikings stealing headlines behind a 20-10 win that sees them back to the top of the NFC North. It’s no wonder bookies reopened this line, which saw the Seahawks favored at -1.5 points on Tuesday, on a pick’em.

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Texans vs. Bills
Advanced Line OTB
Sunday Opening Line: Bills -3
Despite a three-game winning streak by the Texans, the NFL betting line was off the board last week, mainly down to the fact that it was yet uncertain whether Brian Hoyer would pass the concussion protocol. He did. He then went on to lead the Texans to a 24-6 win at home over the Saints, all while installed as the mere field goal favorites or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice. Buffalo Bills succumbed to a loss on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs, a 30-22 loss that saw them fail to cover as the 4.5-point road underdogs. Still, bookies open with the Bills as the field goal favorites at home.

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Cardinals vs. Rams
Advanced Line Cardinals -5.5
Sunday Opening Line: Cardinals -6
St. Louis Rams were crushed by the Bengals 31-7 on the road in week 12 NFL betting, an outcome that didn’t surprise NFL bettors surely. The Cardinals, however, only managed to edge the Niners 19-13 on the road, despite trading as the hefty double-digit favorites. Advanced lines saw this game nestled on a 5.5-point spread, but open at the close of Sunday at a slightly higher 6-points with the Cardinals to the good on the road. That has everything to do with the fact that the Cardinals are deemed the best team (or one of the best depending on perspective) in the NFC this season, more so than the results of week 12 NFL betting.

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Niners vs. Bears
Advanced Line Bears -7
Sunday Opening Line: Bears -8.5
Even before the Bears were responsible for the biggest upset on Thanksgiving Day – heck, the week, – they were trading as touchdown favorites in Tuesday’s Advanced Line serving by Westgate. Naturally, after pulling off the monumental upset at Lambeau in a matchup that couldn’t have been more lopsided by past NFL betting trends, it should come as no surprise that odds makers balloon the line to 8.5-points on Sunday.

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Jaguars vs. Titans
Advanced Line Titans -2.5
Sunday Opening Line: Titans -2.5
Both teams were losers in week 12 NFL betting, prompting Westgate to open this game on the same line proposed last week. Titans lost 23-21 at home to the Raiders while the Jaguars lost 31-25 at home to the Chargers. It’s a right tossup this one.

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Broncos vs. Chargers
Advanced Line Broncos -6
Sunday Opening Line: Broncos -3
Even before Sunday Night Football kicked off between the Patriots and Broncos, Westgate served up their updated NFL betting line for this game, shaving the Broncos down from six points to a field goal. That’s obviously a reaction to the Chargers’ big win over the Jaguars on the road in week 12 NFL betting, finally getting one into the win column and snapping a six-game losing streak. Still, a win over the Jaguars is hardly to get charged about. To a lesser extent it’s a reflection of Peyton Manning’s uncertain status with the Broncos, whether he’ll start the game or not.

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Chiefs vs. Raiders
Advanced Line Chiefs -2.5
Sunday Opening Line: Chiefs -3
Advanced Lines appropriately favored the Kansas City Chiefs at 2.5-points on the road. Consider the resurgence of the Chiefs in the AFC West, which is nothing short of a minor miracle. Both the Raiders and Chiefs were winners in week 12, but if we’re being churlish the latter’s was better. Beating a tough Bills outfit 30-22 and improving their run of form to five straight wins (5-0 ATS over this run as well) is something to get charged about. The Raiders beating the Titans only just doesn’t quite compare. As a result, the Chiefs improve to 3-points on the road in early NFL betting markets, which at this points smacks of a steal for your NFL picks.  

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Panthers vs. Saints
Advanced Line Panthers -3.5
Sunday Opening Line:
For whatever reason, odds makers continue to disrespect the Panthers. Last Tuesday, the 10-0 SU Panthers were served up as merely 3.5-point road favorites over the Saints for their week 13 date. After serving notice with a 33-14 win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, all while trading as the road underdogs, sportsbooks were left with no choice but to take stock. Hence, the Panthers open as the whopping 7-point favorites on the road. It helps that the Saints wilted in Houston to a lacklustre 24-6 loss.

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Eagles vs. Patriots
Advanced Line Patriots -9.5
Sunday Opening Line: Patriots -13
Even before week 12 got underway, Westgate weighed in on this matchup and served up the Patriots as the staggering 9.5-point faves. Then the Eagles crashed and burned in Detroit in one of their worst accounts of the season. A forgettable 45-14 loss to the Lions. The way things are going with the Chip Kelly experiment, it’s not surprising the NFL betting line on this game swelled to an almost two touchdown advantage for the Patriots even before the close of Sunday Night Football.

 

Colts vs. Steelers
Advanced Line Steelers -6.5
Sunday Opening Line: OTB
The Colts continue to win under Matt Hasselbeck, which is somewhat surprising. They improve to 4-0 SU behind the veteran starter and look to continue their strong form when they descend on the Steelers in week 13. Advanced lines opened with the Steelers as the significant home faves at 6.5-points, but that’s now up in the air as Big Ben undergoes concussion protocol after suffering an injury in the highly-entertaining clash with the Seahawks. (Seattle won 39-30).

 

Cowboys vs. Redskins
Advanced Line Cowboys -3
Sunday Opening Line: Redskins -4
Advanced Lines had the Cowboys as the field goal favorites. That was then. Before Tony Romo injured his left clavicle for the second time this season, effectively ending his season altogether. No Tony Romo. Big Problem. Without their starter they went winless in seven straight games. The upshot of which is the Redskins are now installed as the 4-point home chalk. However, it’s worth pointing out that the Redskins deserve some of the credit for this complete reversal of this NFL betting outlook. They beat the Giants at home in week 12 to improve to 5-6 SU and sit at the head of the table, presiding over the dysfunctional NFC East family. As well, the Redskins are 5-1SU at home and 4-2 ATS.

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