Stats & Trends Prompt Taking Saints (+1) vs. Redskins With Your NFL Picks

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, November 14, 2015 8:21 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 14, 2015 8:21 PM UTC

Both teams are in the midst of disappointing seasons and are coming off losses. Let us review what the NFL odds makers are hanging on this one and isolate the sharp side of this NFC matchup in our NFL picks on Sunday.

New Orleans Saints (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)
The New Orleans Saints are one of the most mercurial and enigmatic teams in the league. How is it they knock out three impressive and consecutive victories over the Falcons, Colts (on the road) and the Giants whom they torched in a 52-49 shootout yet lose to the Bucs in their season opener and then last week fall to the Titans - at home no less?!

I guess that's why they call it the National Football Lottery. It can be painstakingly frustrating to analyze, dissect and then ultimately lose a wager in a way that belies logic. Well, for every head-scratcher we have many more that follow the script and go as planned. That is why we keep making our NFL picks and why we will select the right side in this matchup.

Drew Brees has always been a prolific passer and to such a degree that he has been hailed as one of the new millennium's all-time greats. That short list includes Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Yet that inclusion in the rarified air of "best ever to play the game" assumes one thing - winning. The Saints have not done much of that recently and their 4-5 record gives no street cred to a quarterback that is on the fast track to the Hall-of-Fame. However Drew Brees looked like he fit that bill perfectly over his last pair of games with a staggering 10 touchdowns and an equally astounding 892 yards passing. But the fact of the matter is his record over the course of those two games is 1-1 straight up and a disappointing 0-1-1 against the number. The Saints can't win on the back of only one man.


Washington Redskins (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS)
The Washington Redskins have dropped three of their last four but in their defense they were all games that no one expected them to win. The scheduling gods were not kind to the 'Skins when they pitted them against the Falcons, Jets and Patriots all on the road. The lone victory wedged in between was a 31-30 decision over the Bucs in DC which may have been a win on their record but for those that laid the three points that the NFL odds makers demanded that proved to be a blown cover. And while there is certainly no shame in losing to the defending Super Bowl champs on their home turf the unsettling aspect is that the Redskins could score only 10 points against a decent but certainly not elite New England defense.


Betting Analysis
I am not quite sure how the Redskins are going to trade with the Saints. On one hand we have Drew Brees who never saw a target he didn't like as well as one of the most celebrated passers in the history of the league versus Kirk Cousins who will be the answer to a trivia question someday. Both defenses rank in the bottom third of points allowed which will be spiraling downward even further after this one. And though QB Cousins will have plenty of opportunities to strike against a lousy Saints secondary I believe Brees will strike earlier and more often.

Some stats to consider:

The Redskins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in Week 10.

The Redskins are 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game (allowed 161 to Patriots in Week 9).

The Redskins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game (gained 37 yards rushing against the Patriots in Week 9).

The Saints are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five vs. NFC opponents.

NFL Picks: Play the Saints +1 at Pinnacle

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