Stats Don't Lie: Add Packers Over Seahawks as the Sharp SNF NFL Pick

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, September 20, 2015 3:53 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 20, 2015 3:53 PM UTC

The Seahawks invade Lambeau Field after getting stung last week while the Packers covered the odds on the road. Let's analyze this clash of the NFC superpowers & include one in our NFL picks.

We Talked About This
Each and every week of the NFL season SBR contributor Jordan Sharp and I share our NFL picks and back those selections up with analysis, research, historical trends and good old fashioned intuition. While we may not always agree I must say that I respect the man's opinion whether he's on a heater or in the midst of an agonizing cooler. We have all been there and just when it seems like you have the game figured out where every bet you make turns to gold then it suddenly goes cold and every bounce breaks the wrong way and all the calls go against you.

We are only in Week 2 of the NFL season and the verdict is still out on every team but this is the game Mr. Sharp raved about. After listening to him I would be lying if I told you this game was still a pass for me as I am now convinced that the Sharp side (see what I did there?) is the right side in the Green Bay Packers. Currently the NFL odds makers have installed Green Bay as 3 to 3 ½-point home favorites over the Seahawks who lost their opener 37-34 in overtime to the Rams. Let us take a look at why the Packers should be included in your NFL picks Sunday night.


The Stats Don't Lie
-Packers are 9-5-1 since 2013 as home favorites since 2013

-Packers are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games as a favorite

-Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0

-Packers are 52-25-2 ATS in their last 79 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

-Seahawks are 8-15 since 2010 as a road underdog

-Packers are 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 games on grass

-Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 2

-Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

-Revenge game for the Packers who lost 28-22 in the NFC Conference Championship last season but covered the spread as nine-point road underdogs.


Green Bay Is My NFL Pick
I don't think you can overlook the importance of Kam Chancellor's absence in the Seattle secondary. Last week Nick Foles torched this vaunted Seattle secondary for close to 300 yards and The Beast, Marshawn Lynch, was held to 73 yards.

Today it won't be Nick Foles torching the Seahawks secondary but Aaron Rodgers who will go full-blown napalm on them if allowed the opportunity. This game is set up perfectly for the Packers who have been licking their collective chops since January to get a crack at the Seahawks. While I like Russell Wilson and recognize he can certainly make things happen with his legs I believe that the Seahawks are going to trail early in this one and handing the ball to Lynch or watching Wilson bootleg to the edge will simply be too time consuming to match the aerial attack of Rodgers and company.

I realize that many bettors cannot resist the urge to bet the Seahawks getting points but this defense is not the Legion of Boom without Chancellor and until he ends his holdout, Seattle will witness the effects of his absence.

NFL Pick: Play Green Bay -3 (-120) at GTBets.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837001, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Must Read: Expect Scoring Fireworks Between Seahawks & Packers on Sunday Night

comment here