Sports Betting - Swinger’s Week 8 NFL Picks

Washington Redskins players

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, October 27, 2016 10:09 PM GMT

Swinger went a perfect 3-0 in his NFL picks last week and is locked and loaded to give your bookmaker another beatdown. Let’s read what the man has to say about Week 8.

 

Swinger’s Overall 2016 NFL Record: 16-15 (after Week 7)

This column is a helluva lot easier to write coming off a 3-0 week in my NFL picks than trudging through a losing week and trying to explain why, why, for the luvva gawd, why?! Though bad beats are far more agonizing than bad decisions, at the very least bad beats provide solace that if the unusual thing, or series of events, hadn’t happened then the research and homework we did would have paid off. Poor decisions are simply a manifestation of erroneous conclusions drawn from either sparse research, faulty analysis or a combination of both.

I am guilty of making some poor decisions this season as evidenced by my pedestrian 16-15 ATS mark but I assure you it was not due to lack of effort, but rather focusing too much on one aspect as opposed to giving others equal weight. Oh, and yes, I have fallen victim to bad beats as well, which happens if you hang around this game long enough. But enough grousing about the sins of the past and let’s focus on what the NFL odds makers are hanging this week. We are buoyed by a perfect 3-0 sweep in last week’s Swinger’s picks column and are more than ready to do it all over again. So come with me – let’s go!

 

Washington Redskins vs Cincinnati Bengals  

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the early game played in London so no, the Bengals are not at home despite the fact that they are to the right of the vs., indicating the home team. So I ask you, why are they favored? Who have they beaten and are you impressed? Let’s look at their three victories and see if the adjectives “hapless”, “woeful” or “pitiful” fit before each team, shall we? The Jets, Dolphins and Browns – hapless, woeful, pitiful. Voila!

Washington is, of course, hoping Josh Norman suits up but even if he doesn’t I will take my chances with Kirk Cousins and the Skins offense who have more passing yards per game (ranked 3rd) and more points scored per game (ranked 15th) than the Bengals. Cincinnati cannot stop the run and are ranked 26th in that category which allows Washington to run the ball, opening up the passing game. The squares are going to be yakking about Dalton-to-Green because that’s all they know and that’s why this number is where it is when in reality, the NFL odds makers have the wrong favorite here. Here are a few stats to chew on:

Washington Redskins:

5-0 ATS in their last five games after registering more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a losing record.

4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.

Cincinnati Bengals:

1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.

0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record.

 

Free NFL Pick: Washington +3Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts  

Let’s state the obvious. The Colts score points with relative ease but can’t stop points from being scored on them. That said, the Colts will win at home this week. The Chiefs are ranked 21st in passing yards (no surprise there with game manager Alex Smith at the helm), 18th in rushing, 17th in points scored (22.7 PPG) and tied for 11th in points allowed (20.5 PPG). The absence of Justin Houston has morphed this once stalwart defense into a merely serviceable version of its former self.

I look for the Chiefs to pound the ball with Spencer Ware and the Kansas City offense to slowly move the chains. However, Andrew Luck has been getting better and better, looking again like the heir apparent to Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers et al. The Colts won’t gain much traction running but, in this case, it will be the pass that sets up the run as opposed to the other way around. In addition, Indianapolis is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings against KC. Conversely, the Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven and 1-4 ATS in its last five against opponents with a losing record, and 0-5 ATS in its last five following a win. Grab the home pup in this one.

 

Free NFL Pick: Colts +3Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos 

These divisional rivals met just a few weeks ago in San Diego and the Chargers came away with a 21-13 victory. The Denver defense will be sky high at home but the offense will plod along as it always does. I believe the Bolts have a chance in this game but I believe even more that points will be few and far between. Go low my friends.

 

Free NFL Pick: Under 44 (-115)Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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The Woodman’s Corner (3-4 ATS)

The Woodman fell last week as he did what my daddy always cautioned me not to do – threw good money on bad teams. But let’s face it, the point spread evens those disparities out so who could have blamed him for taking the Browns +10 over the Bengals last week? Well, the Brownies faded and cost the Woodman a unit.

But this week he is welcoming the Eagles into his lovin’ arms as they travel to Jerry Jones’ billion dollar playground to take on the Dallas Cowboys. Woodman says fly like an eagle – and so does Steve Miller.

 

Free NFL Pick: Eagles +4 ½ Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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