Sports B.I.T: What You Need To Know When Betting The NFL Draft

Teddy Covers

Thursday, April 21, 2016 4:51 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 21, 2016 4:51 PM UTC

Teddy and Pauly weren't born yesterday and know some of the best insider tips. For Wednesday's show, they do a deep dive on quarterback selection and how it will affect you in your NFL betting.

Wednesday’s SportsBIT show exposed the secret truth behind the NFL Draft – it’s nearly impossible to draft an ‘A” level QB, and there aren’t many (any) good options for teams that haven’t been lucky enough to have an elite QB fall into their laps. On Thursday’s show, Teddy and Pauly are done with theoretical talk, moving on to the practicalities of the 2016 NFL Draft. 

They start their Deep Dive into the college QB’s with an in-depth discussion of the blockbuster deal between the Browns and Eagles yesterday.  Philly now has $58 million locked up in guaranteed money at the quarterback position, yet they don’t (and won’t after the draft) have an above average quarterback on the roster. And the Eagles mortgaged their future to get whichever one of the top two QB’s the Los Angeles Rams don’t want.

The history of QB’s going #1 and #2 in the draft isn’t very long, but it does show a clear bias towards the #1 pick as the vastly superior option.  Here’s a chart of QB’s taken #1 and #2 in the NFL draft

2015- Winston, Mariota

2012- Luck, RG3

1999- Couch, McNabb

1998- Manning, Leaf

1993- Bledsoe, Mirer

1971-Plunkett, Manning

Tim Couch was taken ahead of Donovan McNabb in 1999, but that’s about the only instance of a #2 drafted QB outshining the guy at #1. That being said, the NFL is a quarterbacks league and if you don’t have a quarterback, you’re not reaching the playoffs, let alone winning a Super Bowl. So it makes some sense to take a chance (or two, or four if you’re the Browns) to move up in the draft and try to get a franchise QB locked up on your roster long term.

Here’s what Eagles GM Howie Roseman had to say: “You look at teams and it’s clear — you have quarterbacks or you don’t, and teams that don’t have quarterbacks are looking for them, and we don’t want to be in that position going forward.……..So even though we understand that we made a commitment to Sam and Chase, we went into this offseason saying we wanted to improve the quarterback situation. We don’t want to be in a situation where we’re desperate.”

Pauly and Teddy then spend some time breaking down the Top 10 projected QB’s in the draft. Is Jared Goff a difference maker? Why did Carson Wentz end up at North Dakota State? Which later round draftees are potential sleepers? Check out the full show to find out!

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