It’s one of the final regular season prop series of the year, and with only a few weeks left, we have to take advantage of every one of the NFL Odds. That being said, here are my three favorite team prop plays from bet365 for this week’s NFL Picks.
Vikings vs. Dolphins O/U 4.5 touchdowns
The Dolphins have all but been eliminated from the playoffs this season, and if they lose this week they are officially out. However their playoff chances if they win still isn’t good, and they have virtually sealed their fate after their last two losses. However this week they welcome in the Vikings, and the NFL odds have the total at only around 42 points. This is extremely low for a touchdown total of 4.5 and I think it makes the under a great play to kick off my prop NFL Picks this week.
The Vikings’ offense has been ok, but their defense is the unit that will cash this play for us. The Dolphins’ offense has once again been collapsing just like last season, and the Vikings’ defense should have no problem getting pressure on Ryan Tannehill this week. On top of that, the Dolphins’ defense should protect home field enough to limit the Vikings to only a few touchdowns, and if this is the case, take the under and add it to your NFL picks this week.
Free NFL Prop Pick: UNDER 4.5 touchdowns (-120)
Dolphins O/U 24.5 points
In the same vein as the above play, the Dolphins’ chances of being a big scoring team this week are low, even at home. In the last two weeks, the Dolphins put up only 13 points in each of their last two games, and even though those were against solid defensive clubs in New England and Baltimore, the Vikings’ defense is almost as good as both of those teams. If they can bring that defense on the road with them this week, it’s going to be bad once again for Miami. The warm weather is going to energize the Vikings’ pass rush, and with Miami still having offensive line issues, (Tannehill has been sacked 10 times in the last two weeks) the under is one of my favorite team prop plays of the week.
Free NFL Prop Pick: Dolphins UNDER 24.5 points (-120)
Johnny Manziel rushing TD scored
I know what you’re thinking before you even say it, so keep it to yourselves! This is simply a long-shot flier of a prop this week, but the NFL Odds surrounding it are worth a look. Johnny Manziel is set to start once again for the Browns this week in Carolina, and even though the Panthers are solidly favored in this game, that doesn’t mean Manziel won’t get free and rush for a touchdown. Last week was mostly nerves and playing a solid defense if you ask me. This week in a game against a below average defense, Manziel could get free. The Panthers have already given up three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season, which ties them for second most in the NFL. Manziel has already run for a touchdown within the last two weeks, and while I’m not sold on his passing prowess in this game, I could easily see him getting into the end zone with his legs. At +350 from bet365, the value is there to take a chance on Johnny Football this week.
Free NFL Prop Pick: Manziel rush TD Scored (+350)