Special Turkey Day Primer: Stuffed Totals, Sides, & Week 12 NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 5:17 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2015 5:17 PM UTC

Turkey's in the oven, pie's in the fridge, and NFL odds for Thanksgiving's Games are here. Join our table of NFL picks and give thanks for the extra cash you'll be getting from all these free bets! 

Lions and Packers and Bears, oh my! Thursday marks the beginning of the 2015 Holiday Season, and in that great American tradition, a bunch of dudes will all dress up in Shoulder Pads and Helmets and beat the living snot out of each other—in Detroit of all places—while you and your Family have some massive genetically-enhanced, de-feathered Game Bird cooking in the oven, all stuffed with things as if the 12 Sides Dishes you already have wouldn’t be enough. Aaah, tradition. This year, it’s the Lions hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in the Thanksgiving Day opener, followed by the unbeaten Carolina Panthers at Dallas, and then the Chicago Bears at Green Bay and the Packers at historic Lambeau Field in the nightcap. Let’s look at each game and provide some hopefully sensible picks knowing in our hearts that a Turkey Day without a Parlay may not be worth buying a big-ass Bird, Sweet Potatoes and Pumpkin Pie for anyway.


NFL Turkey Day Primer
Thursday, November 26, 2015
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions
NFL Regular Season Week 12
Where: Ford Field, Detroit
When: 12:30 a.m. EST/9:30 a.m. PST
Weather: Dome
TV: FOX (US), Sky Sports 1/HD (UK)
Satellite Radio: SiriusXM Eagles—SIRI 83 (Internet 823), Lions—SIRI 82 (Internet 810)
Satellite Radio: SiriusXM National Broadcast—SIRI 88 (Internet 88)
Current Point Spread: Pick ‘Em (Pinnacle)
Current Total: 45 (Pinnacle)
The Skinny: DeMarco Murray and the Philadelphia Eagles (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) head over to Ford Field (FieldTurf) in Detroit on Thursday to face the Detroit Lions (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS) in this Thanksgiving Day opener from the Motor City. The last time these two NFC teams played, Matthew Stafford (17-24-1 ATS at Home, 1-3 ATS this season) and Detroit won 26-23 in Philadelphia in 2012, winning outright as 3½-point underdogs while in the last meeting here in Detroit, the Rod Marinelli-coached Lions were stomped, 56-21 as 5-point underdogs in 2007. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS the L8 in this series but come in on a downer after getting trampled by the Buccaneers on Sunday, 45-17 while the Lions upset the Raiders in Detroit, 18-13 for their 2nd straight Win. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year opened Detroit as 1½-point favorites on this game back in the late Spring, while the SuperBook Advanced Line had Philadelphia -3, so you can see how much perceptions have gone back-and-forth in a game between two teams expected to do much better, with the latest money (Sunday-Tuesday) coming in on the once Underdog Lions (now at Pick ‘em almost everywhere, Tuesday evening).
Eagles QB Sam Bradford (Shoulder, Doubtful) is still ailing so Mark Sanchez will be going again here for Philadelphia who are still in the NFC East race but seem to be regressing under Head Coach Chip Kelly (Eagles Past Records vs Under Chip Kelly: SU: 20-12 vs 4-5; PPG 28.6 vs 22.9; 3rd Down: 41% vs 34%; Total QBR: 62 vs 36)—a man who may be feeling some job heat right about now. With Stafford, WRs Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and the underrated Lance Moore and RBs Theo Riddick and Rookie Ameer Abdullah—as well as some new management—the Lions have more than enough firepower and riding a 2-game Win streak and at Home against a team whose Defense falls asleep during games means backing host Detroit and taking the Over are the calls. And taking the Lions on a 7-point Teaser at +7 seems like a good and fun idea also.

Free NFL Picks: Lions Teaser; Over 45 at Pinnacle

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Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys
NFL Regular Season Week 12
Where: AT&T Field, Arlington, Texas
When: 4:30 p.m. EST/1:30 p.m. PST
Weather: Cloudy, High 69°, 60% rain, Gusty Winds SE 12-17 mph (Roof may close in Rain)
TV: CBS (US), Sky Sports 1/HD (UK)
Satellite Radio: SiriusXM National Broadcast—SIRI 88 (Internet 88)
Satellite: SiriusXM Panthers—SIRI 83 (Internet 804), Cowboys—SIRI 82 (Internet 808)
Current Point Spread: Pick ‘Em (Pinnacle)
Current Total: 45½ (Pinnacle)
The Skinny: Tony Romo and the the Dallas Cowboys (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, L7-8) play host to the undefeated Carolina Panthers (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Thursday afternoon in Thanksgiving Day’s marquee game, and yet another now sitting at Pick ‘Em at most sportsbooks. With QB Romo back and healthy for Dallas—unbeaten with Romo starting, winless when Brandon Weeden (now gone) or Matt Cassel have started at QB—America’s Former Team defeated the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday but locking horns with Cam Newton (20-15 ATS on Road, 4-0 ATS this season, W14 straight Regular Season games), RB James Stewart and TE Greg Olsen and this solid team—which sandblasted the Redskins, 44-16 in Charlotte on Sunday in Week 11—will be a different story. The last time these two teams played, the Cowboys won 19-14 in Charlotte in 2012 and covered as 2½-point favorites while the last meeting here in the Tar Heel State, the then John Fox-coached Panthers lost 21-7 as 8½-underdogs. America’s Team, the Cowboys, are 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series. With Carolina unbeaten, on a roll, playing great Defense behind LB Luke Kuechly and getting great production from WRs like Ted Ginn Jr., Rookie Devin Funchess and Jerricho Cotchery in the absence of the injured star Kelvin Benjamin, this team is intent on keeping that Zero and the inside track to Homefield Advantage for the NFC Playoffs. Expect a tight, fairly low-scoring grudge match in Jerry World with MVP-candidate Cam outshining Tony in the end.

Free NFL Picks: Panthers +1 at BetOnline; Under 46½ at Station Casinos; 1st Quarter Under 7½ -120 at PaddyPower

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Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
NFL Regular Season Week 12
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
When: 8:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. PST
Weather: Cloudy, High 35°, , Wind Chill 25°, 30% chance Light Snow, Winds N 12-17 mph
TV: NBC (US), Sky Sports 1/HD (UK)
Satellite Radio: SiriusXM National Broadcast—SIRI 88 (Internet 88)
Satellite Radio: SiriusXM Bears—SIRI 83 (Internet 805), Packers—SIRI 82 (Internet 811)
Current Point Spread Range: Packers -8 -115 (Bookmaker) to -10 -127 (Sportsbet.com) 
Current Total Range: 46 to 47
The Skinny: Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) head north across the Illinois state line to America’s Dairyland to face Aaron Rodgers (Right Shoulder) and the Green Bay Packers (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) on Thanksgiving Day Eve in a big NFC North game for the Cheeseheads who are now tied atop the NFC North with the Minnesota Vikings (7-3) after manhandling them in Minneapolis last Sunday in week 11 as RB Eddie Lacy finally awoke from his Fall slumber. When these two met earlier this season in Week 1 at Soldier Field in Chicago, the Packers won 31-23 and covered ATS as 6-point favorites while last season in Green Bay, the Packers grated Chicago like cheddar cheese, 55-14, easily covering the 9-point spread. The Jordy Nelson-less Packers are now 9-1 ATS the L10 against the Bears and 3-1 ATS the L4 in Brown County and the Packers are 4-5 SU and 4-5 ATS on Thursdays and 3-2 ATS at Home in Lambeau Field on Thursday nights, while the Bears are 4-5 SU and 2-6 ATS and 2-4 ATS on the Road on Thursday nights. Without prolific WR Nelson, a suspect OL and Defense, a hobbled Rodgers and a Head Coach who often makes the silly decision, Green Bay is seeing how hard it is to get back to the NFC Championship Game and what happens here should have significance in both the divisional and conference races.
The Advanced Line from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in now windy Sin City here was (Packers) 7 and Chicago may again be without WR Alshon Jeffery (Shoulder, Questionable) and RB Matt Forte (Knee, Probable) who were Limited in Practice on Tuesday as was TE Martellus Bennett (Ribs, Questionable). So expect Chicago to rely heavily again on electric Rookie RB Jeremy Langford, WR Marquess Wilson and TE Zach Miller with RB Ka’Deem Carey (Head, Questionable) and WR Eddie Royal (Knee, Questionable) also hurt. But some of these guys will definitely play here against a heated rival on Turkey Day with the season on the line and the bears activated 1st Round Draft Pick WR Kevin White (Shin) on Tuesday, so the West Virginia product may be unveiled with the Thanksgiving dessert. Despite the scoring in the first meeting in Chitown and Rodgers and Cutler, the Under (47) may be worth a look hereùcheck out the 1st Quarter Under also—with the Packers so hobbled and prioritizing Wins now over quick, downfield Possessions on Offense. And although it goes into the teeth of the strong Green Bay Trend (9-1 ATS L10 vs Bears), taking Chicago +9½ or 10 (Sportsbet.com) if you can find it (or make it by buying the ½ point) seems the safest approach here the Bears are playing much better, and although the Packers need and will likely get the Win, Chicago and Head Coach John Fox are getting them at the perfect time here and if Bears QB Cutler is on, may press the hosts.

Free NFL Pick: Chicago +9½ or 10 (make it by buying the ½ point) at 5Dimes

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NFL TURKEY DAY FREE SIDES ATS PICKS: Lions PK over Eagles (Pinnacle), Panthers +1 over Cowboys (BetOnline), Bears +10 over Packers (Sportsbet.com)
NFL TURKEY DAY FREE TOTALS PICKS: Eagles-Lions Over 45 (Pinnacle), Panthers-Cowboys Under 46½ (Station Casinos), Panthers-Cowboys 1st Quarter Under 7½ -120 (Paddy Power); Bears-Packers Under 47 -133 (Bet365)
NFL TURKEY DAY FREE 7-POINT TEASER: Lions +7/Panthers +7/Packers -2 (Pinnacle)

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