Special Props for Week 6 NFL Picks

Matthew Jordan

Friday, October 10, 2014 1:38 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 10, 2014 1:38 PM UTC

As will be the case all during the 2014 regular season, we will examine some Bovada weekly NFL special props for Week 6. Some of these NFL odds will be resolved by Sunday night but some not until the end of the season. 

First, a look back at Week 5's results. The Cincinnati Bengals entered its Sunday night game in New England as the only team yet to allow a sack. The Bengals were given an 'over/under' 1.5 sacks allowed against the Patriots. I recommended 'over' at -130 and, alas, Andy Dalton went down just once despite being pressured all night. However, 'over' 7 points allowed by Arizona in the fourth quarter against Denver was a winner. The Broncos scored 17; the Cards hadn't allowed any in that quarter previously. A few other props weren't resolved yet -- one was will Dallas' DeMarco Murray tie the NFL record with six straight 100-yard games to start the season? No was the heavy -300 favorite and was the recommendation. He will have to get No. 6 on Sunday against Seattle's top-ranked rush defense.


Will Denver's Julius Thomas Break the Single-Season TD Catch Record by a Tight End?
Yes is -200 on NFL odds and no +150. The record is 17 touchdowns by New England's Rob Gronkowski in 2011. Thomas leads all players with seven TD catches in just four games as the Broncos already have had their bye week. Those seven are the most by any tight end through his team's first four games in league history. Thomas is attempting to become the first tight end to lead the NFL in total touchdowns in a season. Gronk had 18 that 2011 season with one rushing but finished No. 2 to Eagles running back LeSean McCoy, who had 20 total scores.

Free NFL Pick: No. One injury that costs Thomas a few games likely ends his chances. Plus maybe the Broncos have nothing to play for in Weeks 16-17.


Will the Eagles Score a Special Teams Touchdown in Week 6?
No is -1000 and yes is +600 on NFL odds. The Eagles are a non-offensive touchdown machine. They have seven through five games, the most for any team since 1970. Four of those are of the special teams variety and those have come in the past three games. Week 3 it was a Chris Polk 102-yard kickoff against the Redskins; Week 4 it was a blocked punt return by Brad Smith in the end zone and an 82-yard Darren Sproles punt return against the 49ers; last week the Eagles had a 19-yard blocked bunt return by Chris Maragos against  the Rams. Philly is the first team in 12 years to score on block punts in back-to-back games. Philly had only seven total special teams touchdowns the previous seven years. It has never scored more than seven special teams TDs in a season. Philadelphia hosts the New York Giants this week. The G-Men have allowed one special teams score, a Week 2 punt return by Arizona's Ted Ginn.

Free NFL Pick:  It's a great price so roll the dice with yes.


Total Passing Yards by the Jets in Week 6: 'Over/Under' 225.5
Both options are -115 on NFL odds. This is in the wake of Geno Smith and Michael Vick combining for a sad 60 net passing yards on 31 attempts in last week's 31-0 loss at San Diego. The Jets are dead last in the NFL in passing yards are 184.0 per game. They host Denver on Sunday. The Broncos are 23rd against the pass at 258.5 yards per game.

Free NFL Pick:   Take the 'Over' for your NFL picks. Not so much because the Jets QBs will be much better, but because Denver will get up big and New York will put up garbage passing yardage.


In How Many Games Will Jacksonville Score 20 or More Points this Season: 'Over/Under' 5
Both options are -115 on NFL odds. Jacksonville is averaging 13.4 points per game -- Oakland is actually worse at 12.8 -- and its high point total has been 17, which it hasn't reached since Week 3. The Jaguars could top 20 this week in Tennessee and the next two at home vs. Cleveland and Miami. After that the schedule reads: at Cincinnati (no), vs. Dallas (maybe), at Indianapolis (maybe), vs. NY Giants (maybe), vs. Houston (no), at Baltimore (no), vs. Tennessee (yes) and at Houston (no).

Free NFL Pick:  'Under.' Blake Bortles is a keeper, but Jacksonville otherwise has the worst skill position talent in the NFL. 


Will Detroit's Matt Prater Miss a Field Goal in Week 6?
No is -300 on NFL odds and yes is +200. The Lions are an incredibly bad 4-for-12 on field goals this season and 1-for-9 from 40 yards or more. The other 15 teams in the NFC have missed 15 field goals combined. Kicking definitely cost the Lions a win last week so they cut their second kicker already, Alex Henery, and signed the former Bronco Prater on Tuesday. Prater made 25 of 26 field goals last season for Denver, including a record 64-yarder. He was suspended the first four games this season for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy and then waived mainly for salary reasons. The Detroit Lions are at Minnesota on Sunday and the Vikings are playing outdoors for the next two seasons. However, the weather looks perfect for the game.

Free NFL Pick:  No. Prater is one of the league's best.

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