None of the specials I touched on last week were Week 1 specific, so no resolution on them yet, although I'm liking my pick of the Super Bowl winner coming from the AFC West (+650). Here are the Bovada special props and picks for Week 2.
How Many Games Will Be Decided By One Point In Week 2?
The 'over/under' is 1.5 on SBR's NFL betting odds board, with the under a -200 favorite. There was an opening weekend record four one-point games in Week 1: Broncos 21, Panthers 20; Bengals 23, Jets 22; Raiders 35, Saints 34; and Giants 20, Cowboys 19. That's a fluke. You don't often see teams scoring 22 points or 19 points in a game, for example. That Denver-Carolina rematch wouldn't have ended with a one-point difference if Carolina's Graham Gano hadn't missed a field goal in the final seconds. That Oakland-New Orleans game goes to overtime 99 times out of 100 because every other coach goes for the one-point PAT to tie it at late in the fourth quarter, but the Raiders' Jack Del Rio went for two and made it. Oakland was only the fourth team in league history to score the game-winning points on a two-point conversion in the final minute of the fourth quarter of a game. Kudos to Del Rio, as that decision might shape Oakland's entire season.
NFL Picks: 'Under.'
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Total Sacks By Atlanta Falcons In Week 2 At Oakland?
The 'over/under' is 1.5, with the 'over' a -150 odds favorite. Atlanta had a league-low 19 sacks last season -- or just 1.5 more than J.J. Watt by himself -- so the team added free-agent pass-rushers such as Dwight Freeney and Derrick Shelby this offseason. It didn't matter in a home loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1 as the Falcons had a big goose-egg. The Falcons hit Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston five times, according to the official statistics. Freeney was credited with one hit against Winston while Shelby had none. Vic Beasley, the Falcons' 2015 first-round pick who led Atlanta in sacks with four last year, didn’t have a QB hit or even a tackle. The Falcons hired head coach Dan Quinn before last year because he was a defensive mastermind in Seattle. His future isn't looking great at the moment. Raiders QB Derek Carr wasn't sacked in Week 1 against New Orleans, but that Saints defense is terrible. Carr was dropped 33 times last year.
NFL Picks: Falcons will be blitzing to create pressure in this one so go 'over.'
Will Adrian Peterson Rush For Less Than 31 Yards In A Game Rest Of Season?
Sam Bradford O/U 230.5 Passing Yards, 1.5 TD Passes Or .5 INTs In Week 2
These two Vikings props NFL picks are very much related. On the Peterson prop, yes is -150 and no +110 and he has to play in every game for it to be active. First off, I doubt he plays in every game. Peterson rushed for 31 yards on 19 carries in the Week 1 win at Tennessee. The Titans dared QB Shaun Hill to beat them and he didn't do much. And that's why I believe Bradford makes his Vikings debut on Sunday night as the Vikings christen their new stadium against rival Green Bay. Coach Mike Zimmer has said he won't announce his starting QB until the Vikings' offense takes the field. But Packers coach Mike McCarthy expects Bradford and so do I. Green Bay allowed Blake Bortles to throw for 320 yards, one TD and one pick in the Pack's 27-23 Week 1 win in Jacksonville. While with the Eagles, Bradford didn't face Green Bay in the 2015 regular season. Minnesota will certainly be run-heavy, but the Packers know this.
NFL Picks: Yes on Peterson (he could leave a game injured), under on Bradford's yards and TDs but over on picks.
Who Is First NFL Coach Fired?
This prop is at one of SBR's other best sportsbooks. I had to touch on this because of the dramatic change. San Diego's Mike McCoy and Detroit's Jim Caldwell were the betting favorites on this entering Week 1. Now the heavy +180 favorite is the Rams' Jeff Fisher after Los Angeles' embarrassing offensive performance in its 28-0 loss in San Francisco on Monday. The ESPN cameras kept showing Fisher and it was almost like he didn't care. Or he's good at hiding his emotions in public. Why does this guy even have a job? Fisher is now all alone in third place in NFL history for most coaching losses with 157. The record is 165 by Dan Reeves. So that's clearly in jeopardy this year.
NFL Picks: Fisher will last the season, but Rex Ryan (+800) won't. He was my pick in the preseason and I'm sticking with him.