Special Props With Great Betting Value for Your Week 16 NFL Picks

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, December 23, 2015 9:47 PM GMT

I hit on Russell Wilson throwing for at least three TDs last week, Doug Baldwin with two more TD catches and 'under' A.J. McCarron's passing yards, among others. Here are my recommendations for some Bovada Week 16 NFL special props.

Kellen Moore 'Over/Under' 210.5 Passing Yards, 1 TD Pass
Moore was an incredible player at Boise State in his career in  going 50-3, the NCAA record for most wins by any starting quarterback. He finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting in 2010. But Moore is a small guy without much of an arm so he had to sign with the Detroit Lions as an undrafted free agent in 2012. Their offensive coordinator then was Scott Linehan, who is now in the same role in Dallas. Flash forward to last week and Moore replaced an ineffective Matt Cassel in the Cowboys' 19-16 loss to the Jets that eliminated Dallas from playoff contention. Moore was 15-for-25 for 158 yards and a touchdown with three interceptions. He became the first former Boise State quarterback to play in an NFL regular-season game. And he apparently showed enough to earn his first career regular-season start this week in Buffalo. Might as well see what Moore can do and if he can be a backup to Tony Romo next year. Moore is the first lefty to ever throw a pass for Dallas. This is a big deal in Boise as the Fox affiliate there was to show Carolina-Atlanta on Sunday but got permission to switch to Dallas-Buffalo, which means nothing otherwise. The Bills allow 258.0 yards per game, No. 23 in the NFL. They have given up 28 TD passes (No. 22). It will be cold in Buffalo on Sunday but nothing crazy and no snow.

NFL Picks: 'Over' both. Cowboys will let Moore sling it to see what he's capable of.

 

Who Will Lead The NFL In Interceptions Thrown?
Peyton Manning is -200 on NFL odds and any other player is +150. Manning leads the NFL with 17 picks, which is pretty amazing considering he hasn't played since Nov. 15 due to a foot injury. And Manning won't play Monday at Cincinnati, either. He won't even be active again. Depending on what Denver does in that game, it might have very little to play for in Week 17 and could stick with Brock Osweiler again even if Manning is healthy. Atlanta's Matt Ryan is second with 15 picks, Jacksonville's Blake Bortles third with 14, and Detroit's Matthew Stafford and Philadelphia's Sam Bradford both have 13. All four of those guys will play the final two weeks barring injury. Ryan faces a tough Carolina defense this week.

NFL Picks: I can see Ryan throwing three picks or Bortles four. Go with any other player as I don't think Manning plays again in the regular season. It probably pushes.  

 

Who Will Lead The NFL In Receptions And/Or Receiving Yards?
Both props feature only Atlanta's Julio Jones and Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown. Jones is -120 on the receptions and +170 on the yardage. Brown is -120 and -250, respectively. Jones has 118 catches for 1,544 yards. Brown has 116 for 1,586. He's looking to lead in catches and yards for a second straight year. The Steelers, who need to win every game, finish at Baltimore and at Cleveland, so the potential for lousy weather in both. Brown had five catches for 42 yards earlier this year vs. the Ravens and 10 catches for 139 yards vs. the Browns. The Falcons, who have nothing to play for, are home to Carolina and home to New Orleans. So that's two games in the nice Georgia Dome. One very good defense and one terrible one. Jones had seven catches for 88 yards in his first game vs. the Panthers and six for 93 against the Saints.

NFL Picks: I'll stick with how they are  now -- Jones in catches and Brown in yards.

 

Who Will Lead The NFL In Sacks?
Oakland's Khalil Mack is -175  on NFL odds, followed by Houston's J.J. Watt (+225), Detroit's Ezekiel Ansah (+500) and New England's Chandler Jones (+900). Mack has 15.0 sacks with Watt and Ansah at 13.5. Jones has 12.5, but forget about him as I expect Jones to get Week 17 off along with other Patriots regulars. Mack has at least one sack in four straight games and has totaled 10 in that stretch. Watt has been held without a sack for three straight. He could also get Week 17 off if Houston clinches the AFC South this week. Ansah has been a lone bright spot for the Lions. He has 6.5 sacks in his past five games.

NFL Picks: Mack becomes first Raider to win sacks title since Derrick Burgess in 2005.