I missed on Bovada's specials in Week 3 on Andrew Luck and Brandon Weeden but hit huge on the Steelers' Le'Veon Bell on his rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards and would he score a TD. Here are my NFL picks for some special props for Week 4 at Bovada.
'Over/Under' 7.5 Games Decided By At Least 10 Points
Both options are -120 on NFL odds. Week 2 of the season saw some crazy upsets: Tampa Bay over New Orleans, Jacksonville over Miami, Oakland over Baltimore and the NY Jets over Indianapolis. It was a wild weekend. However, Week 3 was pretty chalk and a whopping 10 games were decided by at least 10 points: Giants 32, Redskins 21; Falcons 39, Cowboys 28; Patriots 51, Jaguars 17; Texans 19, Bucs 9; Vikings 31, Chargers 14; Cardinals 47, 49ers 7; Bills 41, Dolphins 14; Seahawks 26, Bears 0; Broncos 24, Lions 12; and Packers 38, Chiefs 28. Only four games were decided by less than a touchdown. Now, consider there are 15 games this week and not 16 with the Patriots and Titans both on the bye week. There are no double-digit favorites. The biggest are the Seahawks -9.5 vs. Detroit (Monday), Colts -9 vs. the Jaguars, and Packers -9 at 49ers.
NFL Free Pick: 'Under' 7.5 at Bovada
Who Will Get More Carries?
Cincinnati's Jeremy Hill (-140) Vs. Giovani Bernard (Even)
Washington's Matt Jones (-150) Vs. Alfred Morris (+110)
Many people thought the Bengals' Hill was a good candidate on NFL picks to lead the league in rushing this season; he did over the second half of his 2014 rookie campaign. Cincinnati offensive coordinator Hue Jackson said this week Hill remains his starter. But after 19 carries for 63 yards and two scores in Week 1 vs. Oakland, Hill had only 10 for 39 in Week 2 vs. the Chargers (Hill was benched in that one after two fumbles) and 12 for 21 last week in Baltimore. Bernard had eight for 63 in Week 1, 20 for 123 in Week 2 and 13 for 49 last Sunday. Cincinnati hosts Kansas City this week, with the Chiefs ranking 14th against the rush.
As for the Washington Redskins, they host the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3 with Philly No. 8 against the run. Morris entered the season as the clear No. 1 after two good years to start his career. And in Week 1, Morris had 25 carries for 121 yards vs. Miami. But Week 2 it was 18 for 59 vs. the Rams and then last Thursday, only six for 19 at the Giants. Jones, a third-round rookie from Florida, had six carries Week 1, 19 Week 2 (for 123 yards) and 11 last week for 38. The Redskins are going to run plenty, no doubt about that. “We intend on splitting the reps up pretty good. Alfred should be the lead dog, though. It just didn’t work out that way,” Redskins coach Jay Gruden said of the Giants game. Gruden has said Morris will get more carries.
NFL Free Picks: For now I'll believe the coaches: Hill and Morris
Will Julio Jones Have At Least 135 Yards Receiving?
No is -400 and yes +250. Atlanta's Julio Jones leads the league in receptions (34) and receiving yards (440), having posted three consecutive games with at least 135 yards to start the season. No player had done that in the first three games of a season. Four straight is the overall league record set by Calvin Johnson in 2012 and Patrick Jeffers (who?) in 1999. Atlanta hosts Houston on Sunday. The Texans are No. 12 against the pass, allowing 224. Tampa's Mike Evans had 101 against them last week.
NFL Free Pick: I'd give it a shot -- Jones is going to be targeted a ton and Houston's secondary is nothing special
Who Will Be the First Coach Fired?
I get why this prop is being posted already. Because it might happen as early as next Monday if the Miami Dolphins lose in London to the New York Jets. The Fins' Joe Philbin is the +225 favorite. Just so you know, in Week 4 last year the Oakland Raiders lost to the Dolphins in London and then Raiders coach Dennis Allen was immediately canned. If Miami is going to do it during the season, it would be after Sunday's game with the bye week next. The Lions' Jim Caldwell is the second-favorite at +400.
NFL Free Pick: Philbin