Not many specials were offered by Bovada in Week 9, but I hit on 'over' TDs, passes, & picks by 49res QB Gabbert & 'under' sacks by the Giants' Pierre-Paul. Check my NFL picks for Week 10 specials.
Which Receiver Will Catch Peyton Manning's Record Yardage Pass?
What Will Manning Have More Of This Season: TDs Or Interceptions
Manning needs just 3 yards on Sunday against Kansas City -- I previewed the Chiefs-Broncos game here at SBR -- to break Brett Favre's NFL record career yardage mark of 71,838. It doesn't look like Manning will get to 75,000 career, however, and perhaps put this mark out of reach forever unless he decides to return for his age-40 season. In October 2014, Manning set the league mark with his 509th career touchdown pass. That was an 8-yard throw to Demariyus Thomas against the San Francisco 49ers. Thomas is your +250 favorite on NFL odds here, followed by Emmanuel Sanders (+300), tight end Owen Daniels (+400), running backs C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman (+500), and newly-acquired tight end Vernon Davis (+600). Thomas leads the team with 93 targets and 61 receptions. Hillman and Anderson have only 22 catches between them.
As for the second prop, touchdowns is +140 and picks -180 at several sportsbooks. Manning has nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions. That latter number leads the NFL and is more picks than Manning had in several full seasons. He has thrown at least one in every game and a minimum of two in four games. Consider these number for your NFL picks.
Free NFL Pick: Since the record will happen on Manning's first throw, most likely, I like Sanders. He's the slot guy. Sanders also got Manning's first throw last week in Indianapolis. I'm going with touchdowns on prop No. 2.
Who Will Have More Rushing Yards This Season: Eddie Lacy Or James Starks?
Lacy is even money and Starks at -140. Few players have had a more disappointing season than Lacy, who was no doubt a first-round fantasy football choice in many leagues. Lacy had rushed for at least 1,139 yards in each of his first two seasons but has only 308 on 83 carries in 2015. His longest rush has been for only 16 yards and he has fumbled in each of the last three games, losing one. Starks, meanwhile, has 334 yards on 78 carries. And coach Mike McCarthy made it official on Wednesday that Starks is the team's No. 1 back heading into Sunday's game against Detroit. That's pretty much been the case for a couple of weeks. McCarthy did add: "I'm not a big believer in just riding one running back the whole season. We'll stay with the one-two punch." Lacy has been a bit banged up this season and he looks a bit overweight.
Free NFL picks: Starks.
Who Will Have The No. 1 Pick In 2016 Draft?
The 2016 NFL Draft will be held in Chicago for the second straight year and the first round will be April 28, two days earlier than last. Right now, the Detroit Lions (1-7) would pick first overall as they are the only team with less than two victories. The Lions are +225 favorites. Their remaining schedule is: at Packers (Sunday), vs. Raiders, vs. Eagles, vs. Packers, at Rams, at Saints, vs. 49ers, at Bears. As things stand now, the Lions likely would only be favored to beat San Francisco. Detroit already has fired three offensive coaches, the team president and GM. Cleveland (2-7) currently would pick third but is the second-favorite at +325. Cleveland's schedule is: at Steelers (Sunday), bye week, vs. Ravens, vs. Bengals, vs. 49ers, at Seahawks, at Chiefs, vs. Steelers. Some winnable games in there. San Diego (2-7) would pick No. 2 as things stand but is a +600 third-favorite with Tennessee (2-6), which currently would pick fourth. The Chargers are down several key players due to injury, but at least have a good QB who can win games. They are on a bye this week. The Titans surprisingly won in New Orleans last week. They finish: vs. Panthers (Sunday), at Jaguars, vs. Raiders, vs. Jaguars, at Jets, at Patriots, vs. Texans, at Colts.
NFL Free Pick: I'm going with Tennessee, which would win any tiebreaker because it plays in the weak AFC South -- the weaker the schedule the better in winning a tiebreaker. Only the Titans have a rookie QB among this group as well.