It’s another edition of Saturday Night instead of wasting our time on what could be a very volatile game in the spread and total, here are some prop betting picks that could have more value.
[12/5/2015 4:08:39 PM] Eduardo Solano: 30419
Alfred Morris O/U 52.5 rushing yards
The Redskins gave Alfred Morris his biggest workload last week since Week 13, and he ran the ball 14 times for 84 big yards. However, one of the attempts was a 48 yards dash, and if you take away that one big run, Morris ran for a measly 13 carries for 36 yards. While the Eagles’ run defense isn’t much to get excited about, the Redskins’ rushing attack has been in flux all season, with head coach Jay Gruden switching back and forth between Morris, and rookie Matt Jones. While Morris is a good running back, you usually don’t have to worry about him ripping off big runs like last week, and even though the Eagles are more than capable of giving up a big run like that, I just don’t see it happening. Even after that big run last week and averaging six yards per carry in Week 15, Morris is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry this season, and even if he were to see another 15 carries, he would have to average close to four yards per carry to cash the over, and I just don’t see it this week.
NFL Pick: UNDER 52.5 (-115)
Jordan Reed O/U 69.5 receiving yards
The Eagles have actually been pretty good against tight ends this season, but Jordan Reed is not your typical tight end. More often than not, he is lined up in the slot or even split out wide, because while he is one of the better pass catching tight ends in the league right now, he isn’t much of a blocker. That being said, the Redskins are going to need him in the slot this week against the Eagles to create some mismatches, and after utilizing him heavily since his return from injury, I see him getting above the 69-yards mark this week. The Eagles have given up nearly 2600 yards to opposing wide receivers this season, and with Reed acting more like a receiver, the odds of him getting another eight or nine targets against this weak Eagles secondary are good. Reed has over 200 yards receiving in his last two games, and a line of eight catches for 80 yards is entirely possible this week, and our NFL pick will be........
NFL Pick: OVER 69.5 (-130)
Race to 10 points
While Kirk Cousins may not get to yell, “you like that!” all that much this week, he could be in line for another good offensive performance. Cousins has been one of the better quarterbacks over the last month or so, and while his performances on the road have been shaky at times this season, as long as he isn’t turning the ball over in this one, I see the Redskins getting to 10 points first. The Eagles’ offense has been anything but consistent this season, and while the Redskins aren’t known for their prolific offense, they are one of the best offenses in this division right now. With the Eagles’ giving up so many points through the air this season, I could see Cousins getting on the board first with a touchdown or two, before the Eagles can get going. It’s a risk, but with the NFL odds of +110, I can’t help but like Washington here.
NFL Pick: Redskins +110
Best Line Offered: at Bet365