SNF Preview for Bears vs. Packers Betting Odds & NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 5, 2014 6:30 PM GMT

This SNF Entrée looked a lot better on the schedule before the Chicago Bears showed they’re not the team we thought they were. Until they wake up, the Bears are a bet-against, including here in Green Bay.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (-7, 53½, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT)
There’s nothing better in the NFL than a game at Lambeau Field in Green Bay and when it’s this historic rivalry between the Chicago Bears (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, Open Date) and the host Packers (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, Open Date), then it’s usually must-see TV and a big game in the NFC North. But not as much this year as Chicago and second-year coach Marc Trestman (7-16-1 ATS) have been disappointing and with a loss here are on the verge of a 3-6 start and a little Fear and Loathing in the Windy City.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s 2014 Games of the Year had this one lined at -6 over the summer, while the Early Line released last week had Green Bay as 7½-point Favorites, so, the Packers -7 now on the board (Tuesday) is in line with the sport book’s two earlier lines released on this particular game. At The Mirage, Pinnacle and SIA, the line has already moved to 7½ so if you’re interested in playing the Packers and laying the points, best to find those 7’s while (if) they’re still out there.

The Total Points in this game ranges from 52½ (Pinnacle) to 53½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) while in the Money Line (Winner) marketplace, the host Packers are healthy -340 Favorites (Pinnacle) with the Bears at +297. The Packers Total Team Points is set at 30 (SkyBet) while the Bears Total Team Points is 22½ (SkyBet). A random prop bet worth considering and to show how specific bet can be in this day and age, The Packers To Win By 13+ Winning Margin wager is priced on NFL odds at +162 (Paddy Power)

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Chicago Bears
Wherefore art thou Walter? I mean, if the Bears ever needed a hero, they do now and a loss here at Green Bay would force talk of the 2015 NFL season and more rebuilding and cast a long shadow on The Trestman Era. A loss would also likely turn attentions in Chicago to the Bulls and the Blackhawks and the Cubs and their new manager Joe Maddon. Nobody in November in the Windy City wants to pull for a 3-6 football team to simply try to scratch back

to .500 and then theoretically fight for a Wild Card spot. So, though cliché, this is a do-or-die game for the Chicago Bears (8-12-1 ATS Road Underdog L3+ seasons), who have actually had some decent Road performances this season (49ers, Jets, Falcons), although wins at the Jets and the Falcons look worse by the week and even the 49ers (4-4) have fallen to the .500 mark.

Strangely enough, heading into Week 10, this will only be the Bears (180 PF-222 PA) second game against an NFC North opponent, the other being a Week 4 meeting at Soldier Field with these Packers (222 PF-191 PA) in which Green Bay walked away 38-17 winners (as 2-point Favorites).

Because of its current state of desperation and spot in last place in the NFC North, expect Chicago to throw everything at this game—a good thing for the Over—with QB Jay Cutler (197 completions, 2,093 yards, 17 TDs) using RB Matt Forte (130 rushes, 562 yards, 3 TDs), WR Alshon Jeffery (38 receptions, 563 yards, 3 TDs, 14.8 ypc), TE Martellus Bennett (47 receptions, 517 yards, 5 TDs) and all of his other weapons to try to pull off the upset here in Green Bay. But it won’t be easy for Cutler (13-27-1 ATS vs. NFC North) and the Bears because the Packers have one of the best home-field advantages in all of professional sports and the team is 3-0 (2-0-1 ATS) at Lambeau Field this season.

All listed as Questionable (on Tuesday) for the Bears on Sunday: DB Ahmad Dixon (hamstring), LBs Lance Briggs (ribs), Jon Bostic (back) and Darryl Sharpton (hamstring), T Jordan Mills (foot), S Danny McCray (knee) and CB Kyle Fuller (hip). CB Charles Tillman (tricep) and TE Zach Miller (foot) are both still on the I-R.

 

Green Bay Packers
One somewhat hidden thing motivating host Green Bay (22-11-1 ATS as Home Favorite L4+ seasons) here is the fact that they are chasing the division-leading Detroit Lions (6-2) while another interesting thing is that this will only be the fourth Home game for the Packers as we are into November and approaching Week 10—a big psychological edge for Green Bay (15-4-1 SU L20 Home) heading down the homestretch with 5 Home games (including this one) and 3 very winnable Road games (Vikings, Bills, Buccaneers) left on its schedule. Both teams come into this game off Bye weeks and will be well rested, but Chicago (1-8 SU L9 vs. Green Bay) will be the more desperate of the two teams here, and like many primetime TV games, there could be a lot of points here with Cutler and fellow gunslinger Aaron Rodgers (169 completions, 2,092 yards, 19 TDs) on the big stage.

Rodgers (27-11 ATS vs. NFC North) seems to shine against this division, and with RB Eddie Lacy (105 yards, 428 yards, 4 TDs) and the incredibly underrated WR duo of Jordy Nelson (50 receptions, 737 yards, 6 TDs, 14.7 ypc) and Randall Cobb (40 receptions, 578 yards, 9 TDs), Rodgers has enough to work with and knows who to get the ball to in clutch situations. Here against Chicago, expect Green Bay (5-3 SU, second place in NFC North) to be ready and to play a little like a team scared it won’t secure a playoff spot in the NFC. The Packers Total Team Points (30 -110, SkyBet) Over is definitely worth a look in a game like this.

Green Bay’s T JC Tretter (knee), DE Datone Jones (ankle), CB Sam Shields (knee), S Morgan Burnett (calf) and G TJ Lang (ankle) are all listed as Questionable for Sunday.

 

Best Betting Approaches
This one screams Over but some of the recent relevant trends in the series scream back ‘Under’. The Under in this series is 5-1 L6 at Green Bay and 11-3 overall the L14 in the series although the Over is 9-3 in the L12 Bears games. And the Over is also 6-1 L7 Bears Road games and 5-0 over the L5 Packers games, so the trends, as they often are, are a mixed bag and common sense says this game flies Over the Total because of the situation, the rest, the QBs and the prime time history.

And the strongest trend here is the one that matters the most: The Packers ATS record against the Bears over the last several seasons. And it’s good news for Green Bay and all of the Cheeseheads. For your NFL picks keep in mind the Packers are 7-1 ATS L8 vs. Chicago and laying only 7 or 7½ points at Home against a team scuffling and like a boxer wobbling in the ring like the Bears are seems like a good situation to back the Favorite which should win by double-digits in a high-scoring game on Sunday night.

NFL Picks: Packers -7, Over 53½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

NFL Prop Picks: Packers Team Total Points Over 30 (SkyBet)