Skins Defense to Surprise Panthers, Bet 'Under' as the NFL Pick

Kevin Stott

Friday, November 20, 2015 4:43 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 20, 2015 4:43 PM UTC

Carolina Panthers take an unbeaten 9-0 record into Week 11 where they welcome Washington Redskins. Is backing the Under worth a shot here on Sunday afternoon for our NFL picks?

Odds Overview
NFL Week 11—Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
When: Sunday, November 22, 2015
Time: 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PT  [Sunday 18:00]
TV: FOX, Directv 710, NFL RedZone (US)
Satellite Radio: SiriusXM Panthers—SIRI 146 (Internet 804), Redskins—SIRI 93 (Internet 831)
Weather Forecast: Sunny, 49°, Winds N 5 to 10 mph, 41% Humidity
Current Point Spread: Panthers -7 (SIA)
Current High Total in Marketplace: 45½ (Bookmaker, MGM Mirage, The Greek)
Consensus Total in Marketplace: 45
Current Low Total in Marketplace: 45
Alternate Total: Under 46 -125, Over 46 -105 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 46½ -120, Over 46½ +100 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 47 -142, Over 47 +105 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 47½ -150, Over 47½ +110 (Bet365)


Current Realities Heading Into This Game
The Washington Redskins (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) head to Charlotte and Bank of America Stadium on Sunday to face Cam Newton and the still unbeaten Carolina Panthers (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) in this competitive Week 11 inter-divisional tilt. The Panthers knocked off the Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday, 27-7 as QB Cam Newton (21/26, 217, TD) had another workmanlike day for the winners, TE Greg Olsen (8 receptions, 80 yards, 10.0 ypc) and Ted Ginn, Jr. (4 receptions, 45 yards) had solid receiving games, RB Jonathan Stewart (22 rushes, 91 yards, TD) led the Panthers Rushing attack and invaluable LB Luke Kuechly (8 Tackles) again led the underrated Carolina Defense (19.4 ppg, #6 in NFL) in Tackles. In their last game in Week 10, the Redskins drilled New Orleans, 42-14 at Home in Landover, Maryland to improve to 4-0 SU at FedExField.

But the focus of this particular assignment—(handicapping) the Total in the NBA odds, currently sits in extremely tight ½-point range from 45 most everywhere to to 45½ (The Greek,, Bookmaker) range, so the big question here may be how many points the visiting Redskins can actually score against the Panthers at Home in the midst of an unbeaten season and now thinking that Home-field Advantage in the NFC may be theirs, if they continue to do everything right. Anyway, here are all L11 posted Totals, Final Scores and Over/Under (Total) results overall from this Panthers-Redskins series.

Final Scores in All 11 Meetings Between Carolina Panthers-Washington Redskins
2012—Panthers 21 @ Redskins 13 Total—48 Result—Under
2011—@ Panthers 33 Redskins 20 Total—44½ Result—Over
2009—@ Panthers 20 Redskins 17 Total—37½ Result—Under (by ½ point)
2006—@ Redskins 17 Panthers 13 Total—36 Result—Under
2003—@ Panthers 20 Redskins 17 Total—36 Result—Over (by 1 point, Ericsson Stadium)
2001—@ Redskins 17 Panthers 14 (OT) Total—35½ Result—Under
2000—@ Redskins 20 Panthers 17 Total—47½ Result—Under
1999—@Redskins 38 Panthers 36 Total—46½ Result—Over (Jack Kent Cooke Stadium)
1998—@ Redskins 28 Panthers 25 Total—45½ Result—Over (Ericsson Stadium)
1997—Redskins 24 @ Panthers 10 Total—38 Result—Under (Ericsson Stadium)
1995—@ Redskins 20 Panthers 17 Total—36½ Result—Over (RFK Stadium)


Recent Relevant Series Trends and Game Expectations
As you can see, these two teams have barely trended to the Under in the L11 times they have played, going 6-5 over the duration of this now 20-years series in five different stadiums in three different cities (Landover, MD, Washington, DC and Charlotte NC) with the Under 4-2 ATS over the L6 meetings and 3-1 ATS over the L4. This year Carolina is 5-3-1 O/U and 3-1-1 here at Home in the Tar Heel State while Washington is 4-5 O/U. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Panthers L8 games and the last game played here in this series in Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium (Grass) as the number sailed Over the Total in 2011 when Carolina won 33-20 (44½) while the last two teams played, the Panthers won 21-13 in Landover in 2012 in a game that went well under the closing posted Total of 48. And the Under in 6-1 ATS the L7 in this series with 6 of those 7 games seeing final scores with 37 points or less (34, 53, 37, 30, 37, 31, 37).
With the Redskins (22.8 PF-23.2 PA) and Cousins feeling good and Head Coach Ron Rivera, Newton and the Panthers (28.3 PF-19.4 PA) looking to remain unbeaten, this could be a standoff for three quarters with the visitors from Washington surprising by keeping it close and playing good Defense of their own (235 Passing Yards, #11 in NFL) for as long as they can in what could be a “settle-for-a-FG” type of affair. With the series trending Under, and the mercury dropping in the southeast (Forecasted Gametime High: 49°), backing the Under for a small to moderate amount seems the safest Totals route here in a series in which the old NFL guard redskins dominated in the early years, but which has now seen the new Carolina Panthers both winning the games SU and ATS. If the Cats can shut down Aaron Rodgers and the Cheeseheads, holding Cousins and Pierre Garçon shouldn’t be too difficult, and we are taking that into account for our NBA picks.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Panthers 24 Redskins 16
NFL WEEK 11 FREE TOTALS PICK: Under 46 -125 (Bet365)

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