Single-Minded Bears the NFL Pick to Upset Rams in Week 10

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 4:17 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015 4:17 PM UTC

After upsetting the Chargers in San Diego on Monday, can Chicago and Rookie RB Jeremy Langford go into St. Louis and make it two in a row? Let’s take a look at NFL odds to decide on possible picks.

NFL Odds Overview
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams Sunday [18:00] (CBS, Directv 709, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): This NFC showdown between the host St. Louis Rams (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) and the Chicago Bears (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis on Sunday afternoon in a huge inter-divisional tilt for both clubs. Oddsmakers have made the host Rams 7- (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) to 7½-point (Pinnacle) favorites over the visiting Bears—the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Advanced Line here was also (Rams) -7½—with the Total Points posted at 42½ (Pinnacle). The Rams are -360 Favorites in the Money Line (Winner) marketplace with the underdog Bears lined at +280 (Station Casinos). The St. Louis Rams Total Team Points has been set at 25½ (Paddy Power) while the Chicago Bears Total Team Points is at 17 (Paddy Power) for this game.


Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears (162 PF-221 PA) had a really nice win in Week 9 on Monday night at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego against a really beat-up Chargers team as QB Jay Cutler (25-41 ATS on Road) rallied for a 22-19 win in primetime as Rookie (Michigan State) RB Jeremy Langford (18 rushes, 72 yards TD; 3 receptions, 70 yards, 23.3 ypc) had a breakout game for Chicago (500/1 to win Super Bowl, Coral). Vanderbilt product Cutler also made nice use of WR Alshon Jeffery (10 receptions, 151 yards, 15.1 ypc), TE Martellus Bennett (8 receptions, 57 yards, TD) and TE Zach Miller (2 receptions, 23 yards, TD) and if Chicago can keep playing the Defense it has of late and the Offense can get monster games from Cutler, Jeffery, Bennett and now Langford, the Bears could ruin some other NFL teams Playoff chances. With WR Marquess Wilson, WR Eddie Royal (Injured), RB Matt Forte, RB Ka’Deem Carey (7 rushes, 28 yards), speedy WR Jacquizz Rodgers (Arm, Injured-Reserve List) and Rookie Kevin White (West Virginia), this team’s Roster is now loaded and when Chicago gets all these guys going, opposing Defenses will be winded and Chicago Totals will possibly be flying Over. Injury-wise for first-year Head Coach John Fox and the Bears, aforementioned RB Carey (Undisclosed), WR Royal (Knee) and LB Shea McClellin (Knee) are all listed as Doubtful while Rookie WR White (Shin) is Out Indefinitely and still hasn’t played a down for Chicago. On the Injured-Reserve List: S Ryan Mundy (Hip), RB Senorise Perry (Hip), DL Cornelius Washington (Undisclosed), C Will Montgomery (Leg), DL Ego Ferguson (Knee) and WR Jacquizz Rodgers (Arm).


St. Louis Rams
The St. Louis Rams (153 PF-146 PA) sit at 4-4—the same record as their NFC West rivals the Seattle Seahawks—and this team has done the best it can and is coming off a tough OT loss in Minneapolis in Week 9 as the Vikings won another game on a Blair Walsh FG. This team has always in the image of Head Coach, Jeff Fisher (29-27 ATS), but with the defending NFC champion Seahawks and Russell Wilson, the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers all in the NFC West, it seems it’s always going to be tough sledding for this franchise. One thing which has been really solid for St. Louis has been the Defense, which has only allowed 146 points, the 3rd-lowest total in the NFC (Seahawks, Vikings both at 140) while starting QB Nick Foles (10-11 ATS at Home) and the Rams Offense has got a pleasant surprise in the stellar play of Rookie (Georgia) RB Todd Gurley (118 rushes, 664 yards, 4 TDs). And with other skill guys like Brian Quick, Tavon Austin, Kenny Britt, Tre Mason and Jared Cook, but the Rams have some nice and underrated parts with which to work. The Rams (66/1 to win Super Bowl, Betway) have some Injury concerns heading in here with DE Chris Long (Knee), RB Chase Reynolds (Thigh), DE Robert Quinn (Knee), T Rob Havenstein (Ankle) and S TJ McDonald (Foot) are all listed as Questionable while WR Stedman Bailey (Suspension) will be eligible in Week 14. RB Trey Watts (Suspension) is out for the season for St. Louis which has three players on the Injured-Reserve List: G Rodger Saffold (Shoulder), CB EJ Gaines (Foot) and LB Alec Ogletree (Leg).


Recent Series Trends and Best Betting Approach
The last time these two teams met, the Rams (6-2 Unders) defeated Chicago, 42-21 in 2013 here at the Edward Jones Dome in the Gateway City, easily covering the 2½-point spread in 2013, while in 2012, the Bears won 23-6, in Chicago, covering ATS as 7-point favorites in the last meeting in the Windy City. The Bears are 5-2 ATS the L7 against St. Louis and Chicago is 3-1 ATS the L4 on the Road at St. Louis, that lone cover for the Rams coming in that aforementioned last meeting. This could be a good game and the Bears—who will again be without veteran RB Matt Forte—who may push the Rams here and the 7- to 7½-point Spread seems awfully steep in a game in which Chicago (+280 Money Line, Station Casinos) can possibly win, although they will be coming of just 5 Days Rest (TWTFS) after playing on MNF and travelling from San Diego back to the Midwest. The Rams (4-4) are dreaming of a possible NFC Wild Card spot but the Bears could give a hoot and could very well win this one with gunslinger Cutler out-dueling Rams QB Foles and new sensation Langford strutting his stuff.
Trend-wise, the Under is 6-2 in the L10 Week 10 games the Bears have played but the Over is 9-1 ATS in the L10 Rams games in Week 10, so those two cancel each other out or are just stupid to begin with. The Over is 10-4 ATS the L14 St. Louis games in November while the Under is 7-3 ATS the L10 meetings, although there were 63 points scored here in the Gateway City in that aforementioned last meeting. The Bears are a woeful 11-27 ATS in their L38 games against the NFC, but those Bears teams played less inspired Defense and had less overall Skill weapons than this Chicago Roster, although some have been consistently Injured (Cutler, White, Jeffrey, Forte, Rodgers). The Bears come in here on a high, playing the best football of their season and if Chicago can keep Gurley somewhat in check, then Cutler should be able to out-duel Foles and again, like Monday night, possibly get that one late TD his team needs and pull off the upset in a game which would have been lined around (Rams minus) 2½ to 4 last season at the Edward Jones Dome. Not by any great degrees, but St. Louis isn’t as good as the General Public and oddsmakers perceptions of them right now—although Wins against the Seahawks and Cardinals carry much weight—and Chicago isn’t as bad. The underdog Bears can definitely win this game and are probably worth a small shot on the Moneyline at this healthy price (+280, Station Casinos) for your NFL picks. With Langford, Bennett and Jeffery, mercurial QB Cutler now has just enough Toys to keep opposing Defenses dizzy. Watch this Rookie (Michigan State, 5th Round) Langford.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Bears 23 - Rams 17 
NFL WEEK 10 FREE PICKS: Bears +7½ (at 5Dimes), Bears Moneyline +280 (Station Casinos); Bears Team Total Points Over 17 -120 (at PaddyPower)

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