Should Bettors Look to Dogs Again With Week 3 NFL Picks?

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 17, 2014 6:58 PM GMT

Our NFL Week 2 Betting Report includes results for all the games, excluding Monday Night’s clash between the Colts/Eagles. Find out how the betting landscape is taking shape two weeks into the new season. 

Week 2 Recap: Upsets Galore
Although the overall favourites went 10-5 straight up in week 2 and 8-6-1 ATS, there were notable upsets that sent seismic shockwaves through betting markets – most notably, favourites Seattle, San Francisco and Saints all losing.

Home teams went 9-6 straight up but they were split almost down the middle on a 7-7-1 ATS. The Week 2 'Over-Under' betting saw the latter gain the 5-10 edge.

Overall betting results, excluding Monday’s game, has the betting landscape developing after two weeks so: favourites vs. underdogs are 19-12 SU but 13-17-1 ATS; home vs. away teams are 19-12 SU but 12-18-1 ATS; while over-under betting is leaning towards the latter 12-19.  Finally, the AFC vs. NFC battle went 4-3 – thanks to the Patriots, Bengals, Browns and Chargers. On the other side, the Cowboys, Packers and Redskins were victorious.

Going into week 3, there are six teams undefeated: Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver, and Houston. Philadelphia with a win on Monday would join this group to make it seven undefeated. Only Denver are 0-2 ATS on the new season, largely down to the soaring spreads meted out by NFL odds makers.

 

Around the League in Week 2
Let’s begin with the biggest upset of the week’s slate: San Diego Chargers defeating the defending champions 30-21 in San Diego. On a hot day in the Southern Californian city, the Chargers managed to monopolize the Seahawks defense all while keeping Russell Wilson and Company safely tucked away on the sidelines (less than 18 minutes of possession for the entire game) for the bulk of the game. That’s huge. Simply put the Seahawks wilted in the heat and ultimately ran out of gas towards the end; thereby, failing to cover as the 4.5-point favourites on the road as well.

Arguably, the biggest favourites to disappoint in week 2 were the Niners at home – by that same token the biggest underdogs to surprise were the Bears – when they failed to cover as the 7-point favourites. They looked as though they might for most of the first half as they raced to a 17-0 lead. Then, on a dime, the game turned and the Bears produced the unlikely 28-20 win at Levi Stadium. Jay Cutler reeled off four touchdowns (one late in the second quarter) while the Niners could only score a field goal in the second half. Tale told: the Bears were matched as high as +290 in outright win markets.

Biggest underdogs that cashed in for sports picks on the spread were the Kansas City Chiefs, who were all but written off as the 13-point underdogs against the Denver Broncos. Yet, once again, the Broncos flirted with that line, coming within a few plays of pushing the score beyond two touchdowns. However, Alex Smith and the Chiefs deserve some credit for a valiant effort towards the end of the game whereby they closed the gap on the scoreboard and very nearly took the narrow lead – which would have been a huge upset to pull off in Denver, obviously.

Lastly, the Bengals at 5.5-points were one of the biggest home favourites to cash in when they beat the Falcons 24-10. As well, the Redskins as the 4.5-points home favourites despite losing RGIII to injury. Tom Brady and company, who were set as the rather disingenuous 3-point favourites against Minnesota, came away big in a 30-7 road victory that should see their stock improve in Week 3 NFL picks