The unthinkable happened last week: Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks lost a preseason game. Do they still belong in our NFL picks this Friday against the Kansas City Chiefs?
Today's lesson in bankroll management comes from the Seattle Seahawks. Proving once again that there are no deadbolt locks when you make your NFL picks, the Seahawks lost their Week 1 preseason game to the Denver Broncos, 22-20 as 5-point home faves. Pete Carroll was 25-11-2 ATS in exhibition play going into the new season, but Denver's new head coach, Gary Kubiak, was 19-11-2 ATS. No need to bet the farm in games like this.
In theory, we've got a much more favorable matchup for the Seahawks this Friday (8:00 p.m. ET) when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs went to Glendale last week and beat the Arizona Cardinals 34-19 in a pick 'em, but that only improves Andy Reid's preseason coaching record to 28-33-2 ATS. Should be safe then to open up those wallets and/or purses a little bit more on Seattle as a 1.5-point road dog on our early NFL odds board. Or is it?
We definitely don't want to get too carried away with Seattle. As profitable as the Seahawks have been in the preseason under Carroll, they were shorthanded on defense against Denver, and they'll be even more shorthanded on offense this week after back-up QB Tarvaris Jackson (sprained ankle) and WR Chris Matthews (sprained left shoulder) were injured in Week 1. Both are expected to miss about 10 days or so.
That means it's time to get to know R.J. Archer. Seattle's third-string QB figures to see a lot of action Friday night; Archer went undrafted out of William and Mary in 2010 and has yet to see regular-season action in the NFL – or the CFL, for that matter. Three years in the Arena League is all Archer has on his résumé, and he hasn't looked very good in training camp. Seattle might even have to give B.J. Daniels some snaps this week after converting the former South Florida QB to wide receiver this summer.
Very Good, Daniel-San
Not that Reid's body of preseason work gives us much confidence in the Chiefs. However, they took advantage of an Arizona team with some questionable QB depth, and Kansas City second-stringer Chase Daniel did a number on the Cards with three touchdowns on 17-of-21 passing. This was after Arizona built a 10-0 first-quarter lead at the expense of the Chiefs first unit.
Since Week 2 usually sees the starters get only a few more touches than Week 1, this looks like a good spot for the Daniel and the Chiefs to keep doing what they did against Kansas City. Don't get too caught up in Carroll's excellent exhibition record; NFL picks should be made on a situational basis, and with Jackson on the shelf, the situation doesn't look too good for Seattle this Friday. Once again, keep the bet size small, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
Free NFL Pick: Take the Chiefs –1.5 at SportsBetting