Shopping for True Value in NFL Futures Odds Markets: Are Patriots Worth a Wager as AFC Conference or Super Bowl 50 Picks?

Nikki Adams

Sunday, February 8, 2015 7:12 PM GMT

Flush off a fourth Super Bowl victory, the Patriots are amongst the favorites in NFL Futures Odds to win Super Bowl 50. Can the power couple Brady-Belichick pull off the double for a second time in franchise history? 

Patriots-Seahawks Joint Faves For Super Bowl 50
Hot off the press, Super Bowl 50 Odds are trading and depending on where you look you'll see either the Seattle Seahawks sat lotus atop the charts alone or jointly favoured with the New England Patriots.

For instance, Bet365 are trading both the Seahawks and Patriots at +500 NFL futures (or 5/1) while Ladbrokes have the pair on offers of +600 (6/1) NFL odds. Nearest threats include the Packers at 7/1 and the Broncos at 12/1. Sportsbook.ag, meanwhile, are trading the Seahawks at +650 (13/2), the Patriots at +800 (8/1) and the Packers and Broncos joint third-faves at +1000 (10/1).

Table 1 is a complete list of the Super Bowl 50 NFL Futures currently trading (odds courtesy of Bet365).

Table 1: Odds To Win Super Bowl 50

Team

Super Bowl 50 Futures

 

American Odds

Fractional Odds

SEA Seahawks 

+500

5/1

NE Patriots

+500

5/1

GB Packers

+750

15/2

DEN Broncos

+1200

12/1

DAL Cowboys

+1600

16/1

SF 49ers

+1600

16/1

PHI Eagles

+2000

20/1

IND Colts

+2000

20/1

CIN Bengals

+2500

25/1

PIT Steelers

+2500

25/1

BAL Ravens

+2500

25/1

NO Saints

+2800

28/1

DET Lions

+2800

28/1

ARZ Cardinals

+2800

28/1

KC Chiefs

+2800

28/1

SD Chargers

+2800

28/1

NY Giants

+3300

33/1

BUF Bills

+3300

33/1

CAR Panthers

+3300

33/1

MIA Dolphins

+4000

40/1

HOU Texans

+4000

40/1

STL Rams

+4000

40/1

ATL Falcons

+4000

40/1

MIN Vikings

+4000

40/1

CHI Bears

+4000

40/1

CLE Browns

+6600

66/1

NY Jets

+8000

80/1

WAS Redskins

+8000

80/1

TB Buccaneers

+10000

100/1

TEN Titans

+1500

150/1

OAK Raiders

+17500

175/1

JAX Jaguars

+17500

175/1

 

 

To Win AFC Conference
Over the last 15 years, only six teams have won the AFC Conference: New England Patriots (6), Pittsburgh Steelers (3), Indianapolis Colts (2), Baltimore Ravens (2), Oakland Raiders (1) and Denver Broncos (1). Clearly, the Patriots have been the most successful team in the Conference under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, winning six titles since the pair combined in 2000-2001. Hence, it's no surprise they top the AFC charts for the coming season. In the current climate, only two other teams leap off the page as contenders for our money: Denver Broncos (AFC Champions two seasons ago) and the Baltimore Ravens (Super Bowl champions 2012-2013). Odds makers favour Indianapolis  ahead of Baltimore, even though the Ravens have a Super Bowl win in recent memory and the Colts haven't come close to it.

 

Table 2: Odds To Win AFC Conference

Team

Super Bowl 50 Futures

 

American Odds

Fractional Odds

NE Patriots

+240

12/5

DEN Broncos

+500

5/1

IND Colts

+700

7/1

BAL Ravens

+1000

10/1

PIT Steelers

+1000

10/1

SD Chargers

+1100

11/1

CIN Bengals

+1200

12/1

KC Chiefs

+1400

14/1

HOU Texans

+1400

14/1

BUF Bills

+1600

16/1

MIA Dolphins

+1600

16/1

CLE Browns

+3300

33/1

NY Jets

+4000

40/1

TEN Titans

+6600

66/1

OAK Raiders

+6600

66/1

JAX Jaguars

+6600

66/1

 

Super Bowl 50 Early Predictions For New England Patriots
As the most successful AFC Conference team and reigning champions, the Patriots strike a tempting pose on the AFC odds board to both win a second straight Conference title and, potentially, a second straight Super Bowl. After all, they are the only team in recent memory to have pulled off the double, albeit a decade ago.

The Patriots were a dominant team during the regular season en route to a 12-4 record, which was underscored by wins over legitimate opponents such as Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts, to name a few. In the postseason, they were impressive over the Ravens, Colts and Seahawks en route to the title and on the strength of their performance they well deserved to lift the Lombardy Trophy.

Arguably, the most important reason to consider the Patriots at +240 (12/5) on your NFL picks is that it appears they'll be able to keep most of their key players slated for free agency. Brady's contract has been restructured to allow additional cap salary room. If the Patriots can keep the bulk of the team together, they'll certainly be a force to be reckoned with next season.

Speaking of staying together, If Peyton Manning returns for another season with the Denver Broncos, they too have to be considered a contending team. Hence, their +500 (5/1) NFL odds to win the AFC Championship.  They've been close since Manning took over the reins and it's quite possible the banner season they've been building up to since 2012 is just around the corner. In lieu of Manning's decision, which is reportedly coming in the next couple of weeks, we're putting the Broncos on the radar, but not quite as our top NFL pick yet.

Lastly, the Ravens are a value NFL pick at +1000 to win the AFC Conference. Joe Flacco is one of the most successful postseason quarterbacks and John Harbaugh is one of the most respected and successful coaches in the AFC that can navigate a triumphant course no matter the obstacles.

Free NFL Picks for the AFC Conference: Patriots 12/5, Broncos 5/1 and/or Ravens 10/1