Shopping NFL Betting Lines Across Sports Betting Platforms -  Line Moves That Matter

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 20, 2016 1:31 PM GMT

NFL Line moves that matter are the subject of this column and you can bet there are several eye-catching moves to spot following the conclusion of week 2 in the NFL before you make your wagers.

NFL Betting Lines on the Move
As oddsmakers reopen week 3 NFL betting lines following the weekend’s action, we are already seeing some NFL lines moving off of last week’s key numbers presented in the advanced serving from Westgate Las Vegas Super book, examined by SBR expert handicapper Kevin Stott.

We weight in on these moves and determine what triggers might have prompted market reaction and how relevant those might be in each and every game. Spotting these moves is crucial for spread bettors in particular in the search for the best NFL betting lines. If you’re not shopping around for best lines, you could be missing out on some serious profit. Of course, this requires access to multiple sportsbooks so if you’re not already using a few choice exchanges to bet with it might be time to consider doing so, and make the best NFL picks.

 

Thursday, September 22, 2016
 

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
Advanced Line:
Patriots -3.5
Opening Line Week 3:Texans -2.5 (-115)
For the first time in two years (since 2014 when Peyton Manning and the Broncos descended on Foxboro) the New England Patriots are found trading as home underdogs. It remains to be seen whether this NFL betting line holds – the public loves the Belichick and the Pats, after all – but if it does it will be quite historical and contrary to conventional statistics that point to an overwhelming home advantage at Gillette Stadium during Bill Belichick’s era.

Everybody by now knows Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable for this Thursday Night Football showdown (suffered a shoulder sprain in the NFC East clash with the Dolphins). More likely than not unheralded rookie Jacoby Brissett will be the starter, who was handed a 24-0 lead on Sunday and barely held on to the 31-24 triumph. Obviously, it was a mixed performance but it was the rookie’s first-ever NFL game. Some allowances must be made for the intense occasion and immense expectations placed on his shoulders all of a sudden.

As far as bookies are concerned though Jacoby Brissett starting changes everything. Clearly, advanced lines had the Patriots trading at -3.5 and the way Garoppolo burst out of the gates on Sunday to lift the Patriots to the 24-0 lead it’s quite likely the Patriots would have opened even higher on the NFL odds board. Unfortunately, Garoppolo went down hard and looks to miss Thursday’s clash with the Texans, prompting bookies to reopen by completely jumping the fence on this game.

This doesn’t necessarily mean the bookies are totally sold on the Texans rather the public is sure to react to this development and shape the market on this game. Indeed, early action has made an impact across sports betting exchanges with the Texans being bet up from -2.5 (-110) to (-120) at some exchanges including BetOnline. Those looking to lay the points with the Texans on the road will find the standard juice with Bet365, Bookmaker, and Bet Cris: Texans trading at -2.5 (-110). Shorter NFL Lines such as Texans -1 or -2 can also be found (5Dimes and Heritage, respectively) for the differing juice of course. In the latter case, Texans -2 at Heritage, the juice is an attractive -105 for instance.

Of course, NFL odds are in constant flux and will be moving throughout the week as bettors continue to weigh in on this game. For those that subscribe to the school of thought that says Belichick can win no matter which quarterbacks he fields – the famed ‘next man up philosophy of the Pats – might fancy jumping on the Patriots plus the points right now. It’s quite likely this NFL line will whittle down to a PK before all is said and done. As well, one can’t rule out the possibility Garoppolo might actually play. Right now, word is he’s unlikely to play.

 

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Sunday, September 25, 2016
 

Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills
Advanced Line:
Cardinals -3.5
Opening Line Week 3: -Cardinals -4.5
Depending on the bookmaker this NFL line reopened anywhere from -4.5 to -6.5 on the Cardinals, essentially up by a range of -1 to -3. A move certainly triggered by the bounce back win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 2. Smashing Jameis Winston and the Bucs in a 40-7 triumph, an opponent that was talked up following a road win in Atlanta in week 2. Since opening doors, the NFL betting line has come down to -4 with most sports betting exchanges. Low juice leaders Heritage hang this game on -4 (-105) in early markets.

 

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Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans
Advanced Line: Raiders -1.5

Opening Line Week 3: Raiders PK
Following the upset by the Falcons, stock in the Raiders fell from an advanced serving of -1.5 to a pick’em with Westgate as the markets reopened late Sunday. There have been some interesting triggers felt already with the Raiders taking in 57.52% of tickets wagered but the money drifts more to the Titans (50.75% of early money wagered) following the win over the Lions at Ford Field. As it is, the Titans are trading as the -1 home chalk but the juice hovers anywhere from -103 (Pinnacle) to -107 (BetOnline). The Greek serves up the Raiders at +1 (-105) while the Titans are trading at -1 (-115). There’s some variance, therefore, to spot before making your wagers.

 

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Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Advanced Line:
Dolphins -7
Opening Line Week 3: Dolphins – 7
The NFL betting line on this game reopened with the Dolphins as the touchdown favourites but quickly moved up to -9.5 or, even, in some cases into double-digit territory. A date with the hapless Browns is the sole reason behind this market. Josh McCown’s injury also takes the shine off the Cleveland Browns further. Depending on which way you are slicing this game, the options are endless. Keep in mind the Dolphins aren’t typically touchdown favourites at home against most teams and they weren’t that great last week until they took out the Garoppolo factor.

 

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Advanced Line:
Ravens PK
Opening Line Week 3: Ravens PK
The Ravens got off to a slow start to the Browns, which did them no favours in NFL betting markets despite taking the 25-20 win when all was said and done. Then again, the Jaguars didn’t do themselves any favours in San Diego as they succumbed to an abysmal 38-14 defeat to the Chargers. This game currently ranges from -1 Ravens to a PK Ravens line at the sports betting exchange.

 

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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Advanced Line:
Packers -7.5
Opening Line Week 3: Packers -8
At face value, this NFL betting line move can raise an eyebrow or two seeing as both sides lost in week 2. If there’s one thing that triggered this NFL line it’s the Lions’ loss to the Titans as the 6-point home chalk on Sunday. Granted last season the Lions upset the Packers 18-16 at Lambeau, but when they succumb to a home loss to an opponent that boasts a 4-14 SU record in its last 18 games it does little to improve value. According to SBR Consensus betting polls the public is high on the Lions as the road underdogs, prompting the NFL Line to move against the Packers. Green Bay currently hangs on -7.5 (-110) with many top-rated sportsbooks, including Bet365 and Bet Cris. It’s quite possible this game will see the NFL line whittle down further over the course of the week so it might be a good one to consider waiting on for later in the week before placing your NFL picks.

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Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Advanced Line:
Bengals -4
Opening Line Week 3: Bengals -3.5
The Broncos are 2-0 SU and ATS while the Bengals are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS on the season. Early betting bet up to the Broncos at +3.5 but the NFL line has come down off the boards since word was received of a potential injury to Andy Dalton.  
 

Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers
Advanced Line:
Panthers -5.5
Opening Line Week 3: Panthers -6.5
The Panthers were the biggest favourites and only double-digit favourite to cover in week 2. The Vikings pulled off the upset over the Packers as the home underdogs in week 2, one of two home dogs to cash in NFL betting markets. In spite of the positive fortunes enjoyed by these teams the bookies reopen the Panthers as the -6.5 to -7 favourites on the NFL odds board. Getting the bounce back win was important for the Panthers, who are now 8-2-0 ATS when laying points at home since last season. Then again, Sam Bradford was awesome against the Packers considering it was his first start after two weeks of reading the playbook. Adrian Peterson’s injury, however, has an impact on the increased NFL betting line.

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Washington Redskins vs. NY Giants
Advanced Line: Giants -4
Opening Line Week 3: Giants -4
The Giants defense came up trumps over the Saints and sealed the 16-13 victory. Not quite the shootout everybody had been hankering after but the Giants are 2-0 SU to start the season for the first time in forever. As such, Westgate reopened this line with the Giants -4 but early action has seen the Giants bet up from a juice of -110 to -115 at BetCris and Just Bet. In some cases, bookmakers have moved the NFL line to -4.5 – for instance bet365, Heritage and 5 Dimes. The NFL betting trend towards the Giants has a lot to do with Washington’s 0-2 SU start and rumours that the Redskins aren’t liking that at all. (Sorry Kirk Cousins).

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Advanced Line:
Bucs -3.5
Opening Line Week 3: Bucs -3.5
The Rams beat the Seahawks in week 2 but have yet to score a touchdown on the season. As a result, it’s no surprise the Bucs reopened as the -3.5 home favourites. Is anybody buying what the Rams are selling? Not really as public betting appears to be laying the points with the Bucs and pushing the NFL line up to -4.5 with most sportsbooks. The Greek has gone as high as -5.5 on the Bucs, which might prompt some buyback on the Rams after all later in the week.

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Advanced Line:
N/A (Russell Wilson ankle injury)
Opening Line Week 3: Seahawks -11
This is a remarkable market considering Seattle’s offense has gone MIA. So far, we’ve barely seen any offense in two games and Russell Wilson is hobbling on one foot trying to do his best impression of Ben Roethlisberger. Not surprisingly, early betting has gone towards the Niners (even though they failed to cover as the + 12.5 underdogs in Carolina last week). That has caused the line to move against the hosts quite significantly. Already, you’ll find some sportsbooks hanging this game on 9.5 with varying juice. NFL bettors should shop around for the best NFL line on this game before settling on a wager.

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NY Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Advanced Line:
Chiefs -4
Opening Line Week 3: Chiefs -4
The Chiefs were god awful in Houston last week but reopen as the -4 home chalk to the NY Jets. Early betting triggers though indicate the public is high on the Jets as the road underdogs. The NFL betting line has whittled down to a field goal advantage almost unanimously with varying juice depending on the action received by each sportsbook individually.

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San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Advanced Line:
Colts -3 
Opening Line Week 3: Colts -3
Although Westgate reopened this line with the Colts on the standard home field goal advantage the NFL line appears to be moving against Andrew Luck and the Colts. Most sportsbooks hang this game on -2.5. You can still find -3 with some bookies and for those that believe in the Luck factor the best options are found at Bookmaker, Bet Cris and Just Bet where the Colts are trading at -3 (+100).

Shop Best Early Line: Colts -3 (+100) Bookmaker, Bet Cris and Just Bet where the Colts

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Advanced Line:
Steelers -4.5
Opening Line Week 3: Steelers -5.5
Although MNF is yet to go into the books, Ben Roethlisberger, and the Eagles are firmly ensconced as the road favourites of -5.5 with several sportsbooks, including BetOnline. It remains to be seen what happens in the Eagles vs. Bears game and how it’ll impact the NFL betting line.

Post-MNF Update: Well, MNF is now in the books and the impact is swift and intriguing, to say the least. Oddsmakers reinstall this game on Steelers -3.5. Carson Wentz apparently is money and worth taking two points away from the Steelers. As the action pours into the exchange, it appears early money is steadily betting up the Eagles – some books hang the Eagles at +3.5 (-111) while 5Dimes has gone as high as Eagles +3.5 (-120). That’s a knee-jerk reaction by public betting on the Eagles impressive 29-14 win over the Bears and equally so the 2-0 SU record they take into Week 3 NFL betting. That both wins are at the expense of NFL lightweights doesn’t appear to discourage NFL bettors. It’ll be intriguing to follow the progress of this market over the course of the week.

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Chicago Bears vs. Dallas Cowboys
Advanced Line:
Cowboys -3.5
Opening Line Week 3: Cowboys -4
Following the Cowboys’ win over the Redskins, Westgate reopened this game with the Cowboys up by half-a-point from an advanced -3.5 last week to a -4 late Sunday/early Monday morning. Most sportsbooks have taken this game down until MNF is completed.

Post-MNF Update: Dak Prescott and the Cowboys stock is up without lifting a finger. The Dallas Cowboys reopen following MNF as the whopping -7.5 home chalk, a massive move on the NFL odds board down to the Bears abysmal performance in MNF and ensuing 24-19 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Speaking of fingers, Cutler injured his thumb. Boo. Curiously, early money is betting up the Bears, who are currently hanging on +7.5 (-120) with savvy sportsbooks such as William Hill, Pinnacle, and 5Dimes, to name a few A-listed bookmakers with SBR rankings.

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Monday, September 26, 2016

 

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Advanced Line:
Saints -4
Opening Line Week 3: Saints -3.5

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