Shifting Odds to Offer New Value to Super Bowl Bettors

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, January 29, 2014 8:13 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2014 8:13 PM UTC

As the Super Bowl approaches, little adjustments are occurring, which the sage NFL football handicapper is watching. Do these changes make any difference to those making sports picks or is it just fluff and should be ignored?

Denver Eroding as a Favorite on Multiple Fronts

The wagering public and any number of sharps and NFL football handicappers were all over the Broncos the night the Super Bowl sides were released, taking Denver from +1 or +1.5 all the way to -3, before settling down at -2.5.

With not many reasons to support the number last week, the Broncos stayed at that figure and reviewing the NFL odds at websites which report percentages on bets placed, better than three-to-one (roughly 77 percent) were backing the favorite.

As we headed into the weekend and the first part of this week, support for Peyton Manning’s team has been like termites, slowly eating away at the number.

Most offshore sportsbooks have lowered their betting odds to two-points with wagering outlets in Las Vegas still holding at 2.5-points presently. Where you can really see the difference is bets placed on Denver, which is now down to 71 percent and talking to sources on The Strip, that support is presumed to continue to fall.

 What are the Experts Thinking?

I made a few phone calls to handicappers and other betting experts to get their take on the numbers moving.

Andre Ramirez of Extreme Sports weighed in on what he has done. “We are going to see a lot of activity on this line. Casinos can be hedging one side and continue to drive, and continue to hedge again. We bought early at different sportsbooks at the price we liked, but I don't like the factor 72 percent of the public is on the Broncos.”

Also spoke to Mr. B of BB Documented Plays (3Daily and he didn’t think the wagering public as right to begin with.

“Denver slipping is not at all a surprise to me. I feel Vegas have the wrong team favored anyway. If it were in a dome, yes I get it, Denver is so efficient offensively, but Seattle is geared to play in cold. I think it will be a tight game throughout but Seattle will likely win outright, controlling the time of possession and keeping Peyton (Manning) from getting into rhythm.” Mr. B also added, “I think the uncertainty of the weather and Percy Harvin being cleared to play are factors in the line moving Seattle's way.”

Does the Lowering of the Side Really Matter?

I also contacted a pair of sharp internet gamblers I have known for years who said I could use their first names.

Sal resides in SoCal and does not see what the fuss is about unless you had the right number.

“All this rhetoric is bull about numbers flying around. If you bought Denver at +1.5 right at the start, that matters if by some chance it turns out to be a one-point game with Seattle. The only other number that mattered was having Seattle at +3, a very important key number. Myself, what does it matter, 2 or 2.5, unless there is a safety or botched extra point, both are extremely unlikely.”

Paul lives out East, but wouldn’t miss the excitement of a Super Bowl in Las Vegas for anything. ‘I’m so damn sick of cold and snow, my brain is numb,” Paul said adding a few other choice words meteorologists do not use on the Weather Channel.

“I don’t think 2 or 2.5 points make a bit a difference for the spread.” Paul offered. “What I want to see if Denver goes to -1.5 or -1, which I think could happen, will the books alter the money lines or keep them the same?”

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The Conclusion

Besides these experts, I spoke to others any from a technical numbers standpoint and once the number was off three, 2 or 2.5 matters little.

I also inquired with everyone about the total and they all agreed the number certainly seems correct, especially if the advanced weather forecast is accurate. They did say they are closely monitoring the situation, just in case and they would place a larger wager on the total if weather conditions were to change.

Myself, I agree with what I am being told and cannot wait for the game!

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