Sharps Picking Chiefs Cover vs. Dolphins

Steven Suarez

Wednesday, September 17, 2014 7:23 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 17, 2014 7:23 PM GMT

Neither the Chiefs or the Dolphins have been too convincing early on this season, but one will get a much-needed victory Week 3. We've examined the NFL odds closely, and believe we have a good feel for where we should with our sports picks.

***UPDATE
The Dolphins are still favored by right around four points, but be sure to keep checking SBRodds.com to see if there's any sort of movement either way. There's still time for the lines to shift.

Miami will welcome a Kansas City team that's trying to get its first win of the season. The Chiefs have opened with a home loss to Tennessee and a road setback against Denver.

The Dolphins opened their account with a big win over New England, but then fell apart in Buffalo last week.

Miami is set to be without Knowshon Moreno long term, while tight end Charles Clay is questionable. Linebacker Koa Msi has already been ruled out for Sunday's home game.

Andy Reid is still waiting on the status of Jamaal Charles, who's currently questionable to play. If Charles can't go, Kniles Davis would slot in as the starting running back. Star safety Eric Berry, meanwhile, has been ruled out.

Even in the face of the injuries, we were impressed with Kansas City's grit last week, so we're not scared to back them with our sports picks this weekend. The Chiefs should be able to stay close in this game, so we're going to take the points

NFL Pick: Chiefs +4

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A vast majority of the online betting sites have Miami favored by four points on their NFL odds board, but there's a book or two out there that have four and a half available, for those wanting to get in on the action and take the underdogs.

The total has already seen some movement, starting at 41.5 and rising to 42.5 at 5Dimes.

Miami Dolphins in 2014-15 Regular Season: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, -3.0 margin of victory

Kansas City Chiefs in 2014-15 Regular Season: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, -11.5 margin of victory

The Dolphins were unable to carry over their success from Week 1, losing 29-10 on the road to Buffalo this past weekend.

Miami didn't do much of anything well, as Ryan Tannehill (241 yards, one touchdown, one interception, four sacks taken) wasn't too effective, and the defense gave up too many big plays to the Bills.

The running game struggled, with the effects of losing Knowshon Moreno early showing through. Lamar Miller ran 11 times for 46 yards, with Damien Williams tacking on 19 yards on five attempts. In terms of receiving, Mike Wallace led the way with five receptions for 56 yards and a score.

Can Miami right the ship in Week 3? The Dolphins will be returning home, where they looked excellent in an impressive win over New England in their season opener.

The opponent will be Kansas City, a team that put forth a valiant effort in a 24-17 loss to the Broncos in Denver. Injuries continue to pile up for the Chiefs, as Jamaal Charles was forced to leave early, as was star safety Eric Berry.

Alex Smith showed some good moxie despite his team being shorthanded, as he finished with 255 yards while adding 42 rushing yards. Knile Davis stepped up in place of the injured Charles, totaling 22 carries for 79 yards and two touchdowns as well as six catches for 26 yards. Tight end Travis Kelce led Kansas City with four catches for 81 yards.

Though the Chiefs have yet to record a win this season, we were impressed by the fight they showed on the road against a very talented Denver team. We reckon there's value here on Kansas City, regardless of whether or not Charles and/or Berry are able to play. Davis is a more than capable backup who has shown he can contribute big-time numbers in the past.

Our lean for now is on the Chiefs for our NFL pick, but our final ATS recommendation will be available for reading in a few days.

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