After this weekend we will know the season’s Super Bowl matchup, and with that comes the last big weekend of football for the year. There are several nice NFL Odds out there, but one-way to shake up your NFL Picks this week are some of these props from bet365.
LeGarrette Blount TD Scored
If we were making this bet last week, we would have been thoroughly disappointed, because LeGarrette Blount barely touched the ball in the divisional round, after getting double digit touches in three of the Pats’ last four games. However that might have been a bit of an anomaly, and I think the Patriots’ bruising tailback will see some more work this week. If he does, he could be in line for some goal line work against a weaker run defense. Jonas Gray ran all over the Colts the first time these two met up this season, and I bet Blount could get a touchdown in this playoff matchup.
Despite the Colts playing solid defense recently, Tom Brady and the Patriots should have plenty of scoring opportunities in this game. They dropped 42 points the last time they played the Colts, and that was in Indy. This week if Blount doesn’t see several touches inside the red zone, I will be very surprised. The NFL odds from bet365 have him right above even money at +105 to score this week, and I see it as a solid value to kick off out prop plays for Championship weekend.
NFL Pick: Blount TD Scored (+105)
Dan Herron O/U 92.5 total yards
Dan Herron has been a season saver for the Colts, because Trent Richardson is now certifiably a bust, and after Ahmad Bradshaw went down, Herron has stepped up nicely. This week he has a tough test, but with the way he has been playing recently, I don’t think there’s much doubt that he could have a big game here. The Patriots’ defense is solid, but at only 92.5 total yards, Herron should see enough work in the pass game to go over here.
He would have cashed the over in both of the Colts’ playoff games this season with this over/under, and after catching 18 passes for 117 yards in his last two games, he really doesn’t need to rush the ball more than 12-15 times to cash the over here. Even if the Colts are playing from behind, he will be involved in the game. He has 35 carries in the playoffs as well, so as long as he just hits his averages, his yards total should go over. He would have cashed the over in four of his last eight games.
NFL Pick: OVER 92.5 total yards (-130)
Tom Brady O/U 280.5 passing yards
It’s an all AFC title game player props edition this week, as my final play is on Tom Brady, and his 280-yard total. With the Patriots’ run game not what it used to be, Brady has been using his arm to attack defense, and it’s been working. He threw the ball 50 times last week against the Ravens, and while he might now have to throw that much against the Colts, if this game turns into an Andrew Luck versus Brady showdown, he just might.
The Patriots are going to ride the arm of Brady, and with Julian Edelman healthy, and Danny Amendola stepping up last week, this offense might have too many weapons for the Colts to cover. Did I mention the Patriots also have the best tight end in the game? All things considered, I don’t know why Brady’s yards total is this far below 300, so take the over and add it to your NFL Picks.
NFL Pick: Brady OVER 280.5 passing yards (-125)