Shade Chiefs -12.5 With Your Week 16 NFL Picks vs. Browns

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, December 22, 2015 8:42 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2015 8:42 PM UTC

The Chiefs are rolling behind an eight-game winning streak, looking to make a late surge into the playoffs. Can the Browns derail them? Find out as we preview the NFL odds and serve up our NFL picks.

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NFL Pick: Chiefs -12.5 

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


Kansas City Chiefs In Playoff Hunt
The Kansas City Chiefs (9-5 SU, 4-2 home) are riding the momentum of an eight-game winning streak down the stretch, hoping to make a late surge into the playoffs with just two rounds left on the schedule. It’s a complete turnaround that nobody could have predicted way back in week 6 when they were staring down the barrel of a 1-5 SU start on the season and looked to be in dire straits. Then prognosticators were all doom and gloom and the Chiefs were practically being written off by experts, analysts, odds makers and fans alike.

In spite of the doomsday prognosis, the Chiefs bounced back with a 23-13 win over the Big-Ben-less Steelers in week 7. Little did anybody know then that win would be the springboard for their eight game winning streak and a run of seven out of eight covers against the spread.

The lone miss on the NFL odds board during this incredible and unexpected turnaround came when they failed to cover as the 12-point faves at home to the Chargers in a 10-3 win in week 14. It’s worth noting that it was the first time the Chiefs were favored by so many points against the spread. How that affects the NFL betting trends for the Chiefs this coming weekend, which marks the second time they are favored by double-digits remains to be seen over the course of the week as the bets pour in.


Consensus Betting Trends at SBR
The Kansas City Chiefs opened as the 14-point favorites at the close of Sunday’s round of NFL betting action at some sportsbooks, two and a half points higher than Advanced Lines from Westgate Las Vegas Superbook forecasted last week of -11.5. Since early doors, however, the Chiefs have been bet down to 12.5-points at most sportsbooks.

Such a drop is rather interesting to take stock of before making your NFL picks. A look at SBR consensus betting trends reveals that only 48.98 % of spread tickets have been recorded with the Chiefs but that slightly lesser share of tickets accounts for 64.27% of total money bet on the game.

Most sportsbooks continue trading the Chiefs at 12.5-points at the start of the week (Monday), while some have gone up to 13-points such as BetOnline. A closer look at the NFL odds board at BetOnline reveals some interesting hopping around (See snapshot below) that could be an indication of sharp money liking the Browns at one point; hence, the reverse line movement from -13 to -12.5 briefly, before bouncing back up to -13.


SBR Consensus Betting: BetOnline Sample Snapshot


The Browns have 51.02% of spread tickets but just 35.73% of the total dollars staked on the game. Last week, the Browns enjoyed similar NFL betting trends when they took on the Seattle Seahawks as the 14-point road underdogs. Then, they received approximately 50.20% of tickets wagered but just 34.80% of the total dollars staked. 

It’s not unusual for the public to overreact to large underdogs particularly after a significant loss or win the week prior. Going into week 15’s clash, the Browns were coming off a 24-10 win over the Niners in Johnny Manziel’s first start after all the hoopla over his behaviour. That result probably had fans looking upon the Manziel factor and putting more stock into it than was warranted. Let’s face it, the Browns were headed to CenturyLink where home advantage is one of the best in the league.

Despite losing to the Seahawks 30-13 in week 15 NFL betting, the Browns could have some appeal to NFL bettors are large underdogs simply because the Chiefs failed to cover the one time they were listed as double-digit faves at home. NFL bettors though must take into consideration the AFC West dimension of that clash – it was a pivotal AFC West clash with the Chargers that the Chiefs were facing and divisional rivalries do tend to be closer than the NFL odds would suggest.

Importantly, the Chiefs are 8-6 ATS on the season with a 7.7 winning margin on average and a plus 5.2-point differential against the spread. Over the course of their eight-game winning streak, they boast a 7-1 ATS mark and 17.5-point winning margin on average and a plus 13.5-point differential against the spread (the last eight games the Chiefs covered by plus 6, 32, 19.5, 27, 3.5, 11 and 13.5 points. The only missed cover was the Chargers game where they were off by -4.5 points or -5 points depending on the closing odds of your choice sportsbook).

If there were a guiding NFL betting trend for this game, surely it’s these aforementioned stats by the Chiefs. More importantly, the 12.5 points just comes in within their average covering range over the last eight weeks. As such, we’re shading the Chiefs on our NFL picks as the hefty home chalk.

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