Selected Props to Consider For Your Week 2 NFL Picks

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, September 17, 2015 8:51 PM GMT

Welcome to Week 2 of the season. As with every week, I will examine some bettings props for your NFL picks -- and you should continue to check back as some are added later in the week.

Extra Points Missed Week 2: 'Over/Under' 1.5
The 'over' is -200 and the 'under' +150. This one is easily my favorite NFL pick this week. Those point-after tries from the 2-yard line, so a 19-yard kick, used to be all but automatic. So of course the PAT try was moved back to the 15-yard line this season. I didn't expect much difference, but there was in Week 1 as there were four extra-point kicks missed out of 75 attempts. According to NFL.com, only 37 of 6,447 PATs were missed in the previous five seasons. That's an average of 7.4 misses per season and there were 8 in 2014. Now we are on pace for around 65. The kickers who missed were Josh Lambo of the Chargers, Jason Myers of the Jaguars, Randy Bullock of the Texans and Mike Nugent of the Bengals, who had his blocked. Cleveland's Travis Coons had to attempt a 48-yard PAT against the Jets due to penalties. He made it. I wonder if that's the record for longest PAT in NFL history.

NFL Pick: 'Over.'

 

Jameis Winston O/U 1.5 Turnovers - Result Of Winston's First Pass
The 'over' 1.5 turnovers is -200 and 'under' +150. As for the rookie Winston's first throw of Sunday's game in New Orleans, a completion is -160, an incompletion +130 and interception +900 on the NFL odds. Winston, Tampa Bay's No. 1 overall pick out of Florida State, was rather inconsistent in training camp and the preseason and he was again in the Bucs' shocking home blowout loss to Tennessee in Week 1. Winston's first NFL pass was returned 26 yards by the Titans' Coty Sensabaugh for touchdown. The Bucs were down 14-0 with less than four minutes gone. Winston was the first quarterback since Brett Favre in 1991 to throw a pick-six on his first NFL pass. Favre went on to have a pretty good career so no need to worry yet. Winston also threw another interception. He faces a New Orleans defense that allowed Arizona's Carson Palmer to throw for 307 yards, three TDs and  no picks last week.

NFL Pick: 'Over' on turnovers. This is Winston's first road start and it comes in the very loud Superdome. Take a completion on the first pass. The Bucs will want to build confidence and let him throw a screen pass or something short.

 

Keenan Allen O/U 6 Receptions
Philip Rivers' top target on the Chargers, Allen was spectacular in Week 1 against Detroit as San Diego staged a big come-from-behind win. Allen tied a franchise record with 15 receptions, going for 166 yards -- although he was kept of the end zone. The mark of 15 catches had previously been set by Chargers tight end Kellen Winslow Sr. in 1984 against Green Bay. Rivers targeted Allen 17 times -- the most Rivers has ever targeted one receiver in his career. San Diego is in Cincinnati on Sunday and the Bengals have a fine secondary. When the teams last played in the regular season, Week 13 of 2013, Allen had eight catches for 106 yards.

NFL Pick: 'Over' at -120. Remember that Rivers doesn't have his safety blanket in future Hall of Fame tight end Antonio Gates, who is suspended the first four games of the season.

 

Will Marcus Mariota Break Rookie Record of 26 TD Passes?

Will Mariota Have Another 4-TD Game This Season?
The Titans' Mariota was arguably the top story of Week 1 as he finished with a perfect QB rating and threw four touchdown passes in a laugher over Tampa Bay -- and all four were in the first half! The only other rookie in history to throw for four touchdowns in a season opener was Fran Tarkenton in 1961. No rookie had ever thrown for four touchdowns in the first half. It’s only happened 10 times for any quarterback since the start of the 2010 season. The rookie record of 26 TD passes was first set by Peyton Manning in 1998 and matched by Seattle's Russell Wilson three years ago.

NFL Pick: Let's consider the competition Mariota faced. The Bucs were the NFL's worst team last year and might be again. No on 26 (-200) and no on four TDs again (-600).

 

Who Will Throw 400th TD Pass First?
The Saints' Drew Brees has 397 and goes against that shaky Tampa Bay defense on Sunday so three TD passes is certainly on the table. The Patriots' Tom Brady has 396 and New England is in Buffalo against a very good Bills defense.

NFL Pick: Brees -250 at Bovada