The “over” is the right NFL pick for Sunday Night Football with the Los Angeles Rams hosting the plucky Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, December 8 at 8:20 PM ET, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, NBC
Jason’s 2019 NFL picks record through Week 13: 9-6 ATS, 6-6 Totals
As you may know if you’ve been reading this space for a while, our home office is nestled snugly in the Pacific Northwest – giving us wall-to-wall sports from dinner to bedtime. It also means we’ve had plenty of opportunity to follow the Seattle Seahawks. They’ve been a profitable NFL pick during most of the Pete Carroll-Russell Wilson years:
2019-20: 10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS
2018-19: 10-6 SU, 9-5-2 ATS
2017-18: 9-7 SU, 6-9-1 ATS
2016-17: 10-5-1 SU, 8-8 ATS
2015-16: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
2014-15: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
2013-14: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS
2012-13: 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS
Note that dip into the red two years ago, then the return to profitability. That lines up pretty well with the dismantling of the Legion of Boom defensive core, and the switch to a run-based offense – which has freed up QB Russell Wilson, allowing him to mount a serious MVP candidacy. No wonder people are falling over themselves to bet on Seattle for their Sunday Night Football matchup with the Los Angeles Rams (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS), who are 1-point home faves on the NFL odds board after opening at +2.5. Wait, what?!
Jared Has Aides
Just reporting the facts. The expanded consensus numbers for Week 14 show 57.55 percent of bettors supplying 91.10 percent of the amount wagered on this game, for an average bet of $498 compared to $66 on L.A. Why the heck is the line moving in the other direction? Is this a “trap” game? Maybe if you bought Seattle at –2.5, after watching them put away the Minnesota Vikings (eventually) 37-30 as 3-point home faves on Monday Night Football. Let’s see what the stat nerds have for this week’s contest:
FiveThirtyEight: Los Angeles –1
Jeff Sagarin: Seattle –2.61, 51.06 total
It seems we have some disagreement here – which is understandable for a game that looks close on paper. As much flack as the Rams have gotten for their slippage on offense, they’re still league-average with Jared Goff at the controls, and they still have an imposing defense. That’s the mirror image of the new-look Seahawks.
Fortunately for us, Sunday’s total is still available at 46.5 points at a handful of locations as we go to press, although many books have it at 47 or 47.5 or even 48, with 58 percent consensus on the “over.” It should be a nice enough day at the Coliseum, and we’re getting that tasty half-point below the magic number 47 – yes, there are magic numbers for totals, too. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
Free NFL Pick: Over 46.5 (–107) at Matchbook