Seahawks vs. Patriots Super Bowl Picks: Read Between the Lines

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, January 20, 2015 3:03 PM GMT

Sportsbooks around the globe released their betting odds for Super Bowl XLIX on Sunday night and there was much movement for the then-underdog Patriots, moving this line to a Pick.

Much Early Movement
As there always is the Sunday night in which the AFC and NFC champions are determined, odds for this year's Super Bowl were released around the Northern Hemisphere, and, as usual, there was much early movement with the line in this year’s XLIX’th version between the AFC’s New England Patriots and the NFC’s Seattle Seahawks—the defending champions of the NFL. Oddsmakers opened the Seahawks as 2½-point favorites (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) over the Patriots—who had just pasted the Indianapolis Colts, 45-7 in Foxboro to punch their ticket to Super Bowl XLIX on February 1 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona (NBC, 6:30 p.m. ET/3:30 p.m. PT)—and that line was bet down to a Pick ‘Em within an hour by heavy New England money and it has stayed there almost everywhere offshore and in Las Vegas except for Station Casinos now (Monday night) which has the Patriots as slight 1-points favorites and at -115 on the Money Line.

Offshore Pinnacle had the Seahawks posted as high as 3-point favorites for the Super Bowl during the AFC Championship game, but as New England’s lead over the Colts blossomed on Sunday evening, heavy money came in on the Patriots, ultimately driving the line down to Pick there where it also still stands right now (Monday night).

The Total Points for the game was sent out at 48½ by the SuperBook and that number has held pat there—and that’s where it’s also at 5Dimes, SIA—but offshore Pinnacle currently has a 48 posted; Station Casinos at 49; and, The Mirage is the high bidder at 49½.

There has been little movement on the Total so far but if there are any tea leaves to be read from this early movement, Pinnacle often seems to be a little ahead of the curve in terms of where the money may go so drifting down from the majority 48½ as opposed to floating up toward 50 would be my best guess. The Total could possibly end up in a small range from 47 to 51 points, with bettors quick to scoop up Over 47s or Under 51s should the Total go either of those directions in the two weeks leading up to the Big Game.

Quite often, there is a lot of movement that first night and then a whole lot of nothingness for about 10 days. Or at least that seems to be the pattern of late. One thing’s for sure: That monster move from 2½ so quickly down to a Pick says that this will probably be the highest bet game in Super Bowl History. East vs. West. Belichick vs. Carroll. Brady vs. Wilson. NBC. Primetime. In-game wagering now part of the scene. And that (game betting) total will be just the legal total that is reported. The total amount bet worldwide on this particular Super Bowl, though unknown, would probably be unbelievable to The Common Man unaware of how popular sports gambling has become worldwide. And now becoming accepted and talked about and covered in the mainstream media, the betting handles will only increase.

 

What You Could Have Had
The defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks opened at 4/1 at the SuperBook this season, were 9/4 going into the playoffs and were +120 to win the Super Bowl before Sunday’s miraculous, 28-22 OT win over the Green Bay Packers at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Anyone holding a Seahawks Futures ticket has to feel really lucky today. If you bet the NFC to win the Super Bowl just a week back, you would have laid 3 points or -150 on the Money Line. So, if betting on Seahawks, it was best to wait until now after the line flattened out. The New England Patriots opened up at 7/1 odds to win the Super Bowl at the world’s largest sports book in Sin City, while the Patriots were at 5/2 heading into the postseason and at a robust +175 to win the Super Bowl just a week ago before hosting Indianapolis. That would have been the bet to make for maximum value as the Seahawks could actually (barely) slide into plus territory on the Money Line (now -105 at Pinnacle) should more Patriots money continue to come in. Five weeks ago that Early Line had the NFC’s representative as 1½-point favorites with the conference slight -125 favorites in the Money Line (Winner) marketplace. So, the two teams everyone expected to make it to Super Bowl XLIX made it and the line isn’t too far off from where it would be with unknown generic AFC and NFC conference representatives. And with injuries likely to play little part in any potential coming movement—Seahawks’ DBs Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are reported to be playing—both the point spread and Total may stay very close to their present spots for at least the next week or so.

Free Super Bowl XLIX Pick: Seahawks +1 (Bodog Sportsbook)