Seahawks vs. Chiefs NFL Picks: The Must-See Game of This Week

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 11, 2014 1:31 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2014 1:31 PM GMT

Seattle Seahawks descend on the Kansas City Chiefs in week 11, a game that is delicately poised on tight NFL betting lines across sportsbook platforms. Where are the angles for profit in this game? Find out as we breakdown the NFL betting odds and serve up our NFL picks.

The Must-See Game Of The Week
By and large, this is touted as the must-see game of the week. On the flipside, it's proving to be a handicapper's nightmare. Opening on a 1-point spread with the hosts to the good, Vegas gods have coyly whittled it down to a PICK, so washing their hands of it in the process. The NFL betting public, meanwhile, appears to be heavily investing in the road win; already 66% of public money has dipped into Seattle's pot and 100% of public money is backing the OVER 42.5-point total.

 

Can Seattle Win On The Road
Seattle Seahawks are just 1-3-0 ATS on the road this season, which marks a 25% winning ratio on the road. In spite of this damning fact, the NFL betting public is weighing in heavily on their  NFL Odds for the road win at the expense of the Chiefs.

Seattle opened as the 1-point road dogs (or thereabouts depending on your choice online sportsbook), but have been bet up to Even money already in early NFL betting markets. We have almost a full week to go before this NFL line settles. At this furious rate, it's anybody's guess where this line will eventually fall, and on which side of the fence the Seattle Seahawks will be perched -- road faves or underdogs?

Seattle are just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season with a 0.8-point average margin of victory and a minus 5.4-point cover margin. They lost at San Diego and at St. Louis and won at Washington and Carolina, the latter they did in great difficulty behind a narrow 13-9 win. Most recently, the Seahawks are behind a convincing win over the Giants, a game in which they ran away 38-17 winners with 350 rushing yards in 510 yards of offense; Marshawn Lynch accounted for a 140 yards rushing and four touchdowns.          

 

Can Chiefs Keep Rolling
Chiefs look to extend their four-game winning run at the expense of the defending champions in week 11. With Vegas gods coyly whittling the game down to a PICK and the NFL betting public buying heavily into the road win by the Seahawks, the odds are only going to stack up against the Chiefs it would seem.

Chiefs are after a narrow 17-13 win over the Bills, all while covering as the nominal 1-point road chalk. It's worth noting the bookies jumped the fence on this game too as the Bills emerged as the home faves by closing doors.

Kansas City boast a 6-3-0 SU mark through nine rounds on the NFL betting floor, a 7.3-point margin of victory and an 8.6-point cover margin. At home, they are 3-1-0 SU this season with a 13-point margin of victory and an 8.8-point cover margin. Along with those stats, the Chiefs are 7-2-0 ATS on the season which includes a 7.3-point margin of victory and 3-1-0 ATS at home. Patriots were laid to waste 41-14 at Arrowhead, along with the Rams (34-7) and Jets (24-10). Since 2013, the Chiefs are 8-4.

The real interesting stat for those NFL bettors keen on numbers, the Chiefs are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games with the Seahawks.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
It's glaringly obvious the books are overrating the Seahawks all while underrating the Chiefs on the NFL odds board. The Seahawks are fortunate to be 6-3 SU this season, working a rather fortuitous schedule to their advantage. The only meaningful wins they clinched were an opening 36-16 win over the Packers and an overtime win over the Broncos, although that was down to some luck, truth be told.  It's also worth pointing out: both were at home. Since then, they've struggled against various lightweights this season, including the Panthers, Redskins, Raiders and Giants. And they lost to the Chargers, Rams and Cowboys. How is it that they cut such a convincing figure in NFL betting circles?

Chiefs aren't getting the respect they deserve in this NFL betting market. While they were the 1-point chalk at home in early NFL betting, they've come down to Evens. The betting public to boot isn't buying what they are selling either; only 34% of public money has been recorded so far in their camp.

At face value, there's a lot to recommend both sides. In reality, the Chiefs have the advantage in this game in our opinion. Hence, they are our value NFL Pick in this must-see extravaganza. Back the Chiefs to win at the expense of the Seahawks.

NFL Picks: Chiefs Even

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