Seahawks vs. 49ers NFL Picks: Bet Seattle -6.5 at San Francisco

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 10:42 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2015 10:42 PM UTC

Here we go again: There's a mountain of money on the Seattle Seahawks for Thursday night's game against the San Francisco 49ers. Can the 'Hawks close the deal this time?

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 21: 21-15 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 14-23 Total

The NFL is designed to frustrate. That's all it is – the Seattle Seahawks don't need to look any further if they're searching for the reason behind their 2-4 record (1-4-1 ATS). Seattle held a fourth-quarter lead in all four of those losses, including last week's 27-23 defeat at the hands of the Carolina Panthers (+7 away). Are we supposed to believe the 'Hawks aren't clutch anymore, or that they've forgotten how to win?

Well, there is one other answer: The 2015 Seahawks just aren't playing as well as they have in recent years. According to the fresh DVOA stats from Football Outsiders, Seattle ranks ninth overall in efficiency (No. 12 offense, No. 12 defense, No. 1 special teams) through Week 6. That's down from first overall in 2012, 2013 and 2014. But at least it's miles ahead of Seattle's opponents for Thursday Night Football (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS/NFLN).


It's All About the Clevelands
That would be the San Francisco 49ers (2-4 SU and ATS). They beat the Baltimore Ravens 25-20 last week as 2.5-point home dogs, but the Niners still find themselves at the bottom of the efficiency charts (No. 28 offense, No. 31 defense, No. 26 special teams) going into Thursday's matchup. The Ravens, like the Seahawks, have been snake-bitten by fourth-quarter collapses this year. Maybe San Fran can pull off another upset as a 6.5-point home dog on the Week 7 NFL odds board.

The sharps aren't buying it. Our expanded consensus reports show nearly 95 percent of the action for this contest landing on the visitors. The average bet size on Seattle is $1,045, once again reaching four figures. The average wager on San Francisco is $75. This is the biggest discrepancy for Week 7 by a country mile. Obviously there's not too much concern over Seattle's “clutchness” given these big bets.


Like Water for Coffee
That drop from first to ninth in efficiency makes a difference, though. Some of that is due to safety Kam Chancellor holding out for the first two games. Some of that is the absence of RB Marshawn Lynch, who returned to action last week against Carolina. But getting these two Pro Bowlers back in the mix doesn't make everything all right.

Take that offensive line, for instance. The Panthers held Lynch to 54 yards on 17 carries, and almost all that yardage came after contact. They also sacked QB Russell Wilson four times. Seattle's O-line ranks No. 12 in run blocking and last in pass protection; in 2014, it was No. 4 and No. 24, respectively. The Legion of Boom doesn't get a free pass, either; the Seahawks defense ranks 31st against tight ends and 24th against No. 3 and No. 4 wideouts. We'll put them in our NFL picks anyway against a team as bad as San Francisco, but it looks like the sacrifices the 'Hawks made with their depth are coming back to haunt them.

NFL Picks: Take the Seahawks –6.5 (–105) at Heritage

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