Seahawks Thick Chalk Hosting Colts Sunday Night

NFL picks

Jay Pryce

Sunday, October 1, 2017 1:05 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 1, 2017 1:05 PM UTC

The Seahawks are 13-point favorites hosting the Colts Sunday night at CenturyLink Field. Is this spread too big for a pair of 1-2 teams? Read our opinion and check out our game pick here.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks (-13)

Both the Seahawks and Colts are 1-2 SU entering the clash. Seattle is the bigger surprise. Prior to the season opener, the NFC West favorites were +1000 odds to win Super Bowl 52, third choice among all NFL teams. The lackluster start suggests otherwise.

What’s the problem? Simple, offense. The unit has scored a total of 48 points, which is 25 fewer than the betting market projected. The young and inexperienced offensive line, which ranked dead last at Pro Football Focus last season, hasn’t improved. Quarterback Russell Wilson’s pass protection is particularly bad and the receiving corps unable to produce. Wilson’s best wideout Doug Baldwin is slowed by a groin injury, and the unit has never figured out how to get the most out of tight end Jimmy Graham. Even a Super Bowl favorite will start 1-2 in the modern NFL if it cannot throw the ball effectively.

Defense wins games for Pete Carroll, especially at CenturyLink Field. In its last six home games the unit has surrendered 12.3 points on average. Part of its success is the amazing home field advantage. The loud and passionate fan base helps create more offensive false start than any other stadium in the league, according to the Seahawks’ data. 

Th Legion of Boom has some work to do, though. The unit stinks at stopping the run thus far, allowing 5.3 yards per rush thus far, worst in the NFL. It’s also proven a big play machine, gifting three offensive touchdowns of 30 yards or more. To give perspective, Carroll’s men allowed only two the entire 2014 season.

For the Colts to stay competitive it will need to exploit this weakness and establish a ground game. Running backs Frank Gore, Robert Trubin, or Matt Jones will get a workout with the young Jacoby Brissett expected to start at quarterback. Andrew Luck, recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, remains a spectator. Their only chance at scoring points is to get Seattle to commit to the run, flood the box with defenders, and hit the unit for big pass plays over the top. Good luck.

The Colts defense, meanwhile, gets a boost with its best player Vontae Davis expected back in the starting lineup. A groin injury has sidelined the Pro Bowl cornerback since the third preseason game.

The Seahawks are 18-2 SU and 12-8 ATS as double-digit home chalk under Carroll all-time. The team allows 13.1 points per game in this spot, holding all but three to fewer than 20 points. The offense is stagnant but should break out against a Colts unit equally as bad. Indy averages just 4.5 yards per play and will be lucky to score 10 points. Wilson and company will get plenty of opportunities to score. Lay the points (-13) behind the ‘Hawks. They play like Super Bowl contenders tonight.  

Free NFL Pick is the Seahawks -13
Best Lines (-105) at Bookmaker

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