We cashed both of our plays on Monday Night Football to win three of four Week 9 NFL Picks. On Thursday of Week 10 we have an intriguing divisional matchup between the Seahawks and Cardinals.
Brown has been a monster for the Cardinals when it comes to going deep downfield. His one reception last week was for 52 yards, and so far he is averaging 16.1 yards per catch and 6.3 yards per target. However, if Brown doesn’t catch a long bomb in this one, his chances of going 'over' his receiving yards total are very slim. In fact, here on a short week and against a stout pass defense, I would say his chances of getting 33 yards or more are slim and none.
Even though the game script could see the Cardinals passing a ton in this one vs. Seattle, I think there is a better chance of this game becoming a defensive slugfest between divisional rivals. There is also the fact that the Seahawks’ defense has been pretty solid against opposing receivers this season. Seattle is just 150 yards to opposing receivers per game, and when you think about the pecking order in Arizona, Brown has a lot of competition for targets. Not evening mentioning Arizona’s tight ends, you have Larry Fitzgerald, JJ Nelson, Jaron Brown and Andre Ellington to compete with for targets. Brown is averaging about 6 targets per game, but against the Seahawks that could change.
In his last three games against the Hawks, Brown has just 5 catches for 57 yards, and Seattle has blanked him once. I see about 2 catches for 25 yards in this one for Brown, so add the 'under.'Free NFL Pick: Under 34½ (-115)Best Line Offered Both: Bovada
Adrian Peterson O/U 69½ Rushing Yards
Since being acquired from the Saints, Peterson has two games of 130-plus yards on the ground, and another one against the Rams were he rushed 11 times for just 21 yards. Now he is at home against one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, especially when it comes to yards allowed. The Seahawks have given up just 56.8 rushing yards per game over their last five straddling their bye week, and they are averaging giving up just 2.9 yards per carry.
Enter a 32 year-old running back into the equation, and I think Peterson has a pedestrian night. Granted, this is no average 32 year-old running back. This may be one of the best running backs of all time when it’s all said and done. However, with the way the Seahawks’ defense is playing right now, it’s hard to see Peterson busting out for 70-plus yards and 4 yards per carry.
Plus, this pick is kind of a hedge against my pick above, but make no mistake both could cash in the right game script. However, if the Hawks come in and lay 30 points on the Cardinals before Arizona can even get 10 points, there won’t be a whole lot of Peterson carries in this one. I see him getting 13-15 carries for about 55-60 yards in this one, but there is little chance he gets 18-20 carries if the Seahawks come to play.Free NFL Pick: Under 69½ (-105)