The Seattle Seahawks avoided one version of the Super Bowl Hangover last year. But Version No. 2 could make them an awful choice for your season-opening NFL picks.
You can already see where the Seattle Seahawks are going to drive off the cliff. They'll have at least one more year with their Super Bowl-winning (and -losing) core largely intact, but how will the players react to the large sums of money they just signed up for? And will QB Russell Wilson be paying attention to football, or Ciara? Women weaken legs, Rocky.
Maybe the Seahawks will avoid the typical Hollywood storyline where the hero squanders his gift in favor of demon alcohol and other “distractions.” They already avoided the so-called Super Bowl Hangover last year, becoming the first Super Bowl champions in nearly a decade to win a playoff game the following season. But as Jupiter333 recently pointed out in our NFL betting forum, Seattle's got another hurdle coming up: Super Bowl losers are 5-10 SU and 2-13 ATS in Week 1 of the regular season dating back to 2000.
Story checks out, although our crack research team came up with 6-9 SU instead of 5-10. It all depends on where you get your football odds. Anyway, things look a lot brighter for Seattle if you only look at the past three seasons, where the teams in question went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Otherwise, history doesn't look too kind for the 'Hawks when they visit the St. Louis Rams in Week 1.
It's a sobering list of “Whatever Happened to” candidates, as well. The Oakland Raiders haven't had a winning season since their epic meltdown at Super Bowl XXXVII. The Chicago Bears have been to the playoffs exactly once since losing Super Bowl XLI. Other teams managed to hold it together a while longer before completely falling apart, like the 2001 Rams – and the 2005 Seahawks. But they both failed to beat the NFL odds in the following season's opening games.
Maybe the 2015 Seahawks have kept enough of their stars from last year's NFC Championship run to hold off the regression monsters for another season. We speculated earlier this summer that Seattle's ongoing contract negotiations with Wilson and several other key players could throw the team off-course, but for the most part, the front office has skillfully spread its money around to keep as many people as happy as possible.
There's another team to consider for this betting trend, of course. The Rams have to do their part and not let the visiting Seahawks beat them by three points or more in Week 1 – that's if the football odds at press time hold up between now and kick-off. It's been hard to pin down St. Louis the last few years under Jeff Fisher, which is understandable given the injuries to Sam Bradford, and current QB Nick Foles is coming off a very average season (+1.8 passing DVOA, No. 20 overall) with the Philadelphia Eagles. But average might be good enough in Week 1.