The 49ers schedule is brutal to start, playing five of seven teams owning a winning record in 2017. This includes a 7-9 Packers team that lost six of nine minus star signal caller Aaron Rodgers. Expect quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and a revamped offense to hang tough, however.
News flash: Jimmy Garoppolo has never lost a regular-season NFL game as a starting quarterback. He’s 7-0 SU and ATS in two career games with the Patriots, and the last five leading the 49ers to close out 2017. Expect the best sportsbooks to dangle a prop bet soon wagering when Jimmy G will lose his first game, if ever.
Below you will find the 49ers’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds (at 5Dimes), 2017 win totals and 2018 pre-scheduled figures, and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.
2017 SU Record: 6-10 (-3.3 avg. margin)
2017 ATS Record: 9-6-1 (1.2 avg. margin)
2017 Average Line: 4.4
2017 Win Total: 5 (+100)
2018 5Dimes Win Total (pre-schedule): 9 (+120)
2018 Strength of Schedule: T-15, opponents were 128-128 (.500)
Three Games to Back ATS
Lions. Week 2; Cardinals, Week 5; Raiders, Week 9
In his seven career starts, Garoppolo’s offense averages 28.0 points per contest. It is putting up 8.1 points per game more than opposing defenses allow for the season entering the matchup. Expect big numbers with three of San Fran’s first four home games featuring units ranking in the bottom half of scoring defense in 2017: the Lions (23.5 points per game), Cardinals (22.6) and Raiders (23.3). The betting market will likely play catch up with the 49ers offense through the first eight weeks, much like the Rams last season. Since opening Levi’s Stadium in 2014, San Fran is 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS when scoring 24 points or more in a game.
Three Games to Fade ATS
@Chargers, Week 4 & @Packers, Week 6
With head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense likely to keep improving, the ticket to covering the spread against the 49ers will be to run away from them. The Chargers and Packers have the firepower to do just that. San Diego posted 29.0 points per game in six as home chalk last season, while Green Bay averages 30.3 when favorites with Rodgers under center all-time at Lambeau Field. Advanced lines will show San Fran catching points in both.
@Chiefs, Week 3
The 49ers are 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS facing AFC West opponents since 1990. It’s been blowout city, too. They are coming up 10.3 points short of a 0.6 average line. K.C. head coach Andy Reid has hosted a Shanahan-led offense (Redskins) on home soil three times in his career, holding the clipboard guru to 18.0 points per game.
Trap Game Potential
@Buccaneers, Week 12
San Francisco plays just one contest from November 1-24. An 11-game break prior to hosting the Giants in Week 10 gives way to a bye. The betting public will see the rest as a positive with players able to recuperate their bodies from physical exhaustion late in the season. An extended break can also lead to sever rust, particularly for a precision-strike offense like Shanahan’s. Bettors beware.