Saints vs. Eagles NFL Picks: Low-Scoring Game Expected So Grab 'Under' 49.5

Nikki Adams

Friday, October 9, 2015 8:29 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 8:29 PM GMT

Saints vs. Eagles is trading on one of the highest totals in week 5 NFL betting. Will the game crack the total of 49-points? Find out as we breakdown this matchup and serve up our NFL picks.

NFL Totals For Saints vs. Eagles
Oddsmakers opened on a 48.5-point total for this game, but it has moved up to 49-points since early doors at most sportsbooks. Some books have gone up by a full point to 49.5-points, with both the OVER and UNDER trading on -110 NFL odds.

 

New Orleans Saints Against The Total
The New Orleans Saints are 2-2 in O/U betting this season, having oscillated between the OVER and UNDER in succession from week to week. They opened the season on a 31-19 loss to the Cardinals on the road, a game that combined for 50-points to just crack the OVER 49 points at closing doors –albeit it was clearly down to the Cardinals putting up 30-plus points. In week 2, the Saints lost 26-19 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home. The combined 45-points of the game fell just short of the 47-point total at closing doors. Week 3 the Saints lost at Carolina yet again, but rewarded OVER bettors when the 27-22 score (49) cracked well over the 43-point total trading on the game. Finally, in week 4 the Saints cracked the win column with a 26-20 win in OT over the Cowboys, but came just UNDER the 48-points trading on the game.

So far, games the Saints have participated in are averaging 47.5-points (50+45+49+46=190/4). The Saints alone are averaging 21.5-points scored per game and 26-points conceded per game.

 

Philadelphia Eagles Against the Total
Preseason prognosticators touted the Eagles offense as one of the most formidable set to feature in the coming season. The grounds for such claims were frankly evident in the preseason when the Philadelphia Eagles put up 133 points in four games and conceded just 77 points, all while finishing 3-1 SU. That works out to an average of 33.25-points scored per game and 19.25 points conceded per game.

So you can imagine everybody’s surprise with the Eagles’ deposit thus far. At the close of the first quarter of the season, the Eagles are just 1-3 SU and they prop up the NFC East. What’s more, they’ve barely mustered up half the points they did in preseason over the same amount of games. They’ve accounted for 78-points scored and 86-points conceded, which is an average of 19.5-points scored per game and 21.5-points conceded per game – the complete opposite in fact of their preseason.

Overall, the Eagles have hit the UNDER in each and every game. By their stats, that is not surprising. Based on their preseason account, not to mention experience of the past with Chip Kelly’s high octane offense, which has a tendency to put up points in a hurry, odds makers rolled out some of the highest totals on their games at the onset: they opened against the Falcons with the game closing on a whopping 56-points on the NFL odds board. Similarly, week 2 saw the clash with the Cowboys close on 54-points.

While the 26-24 loss to the Falcons did scratch the 50-point total, the following 20-10 loss to the Cowboys was way off the mark. So the following week, the total for the Eagles vs. Jets game closed on 47-points. Nonetheless, the game coughed up just 41 points combined in a 24-17 win by the Eagles.

So the total came down a touch in week 4 to 45 points, the lowest yet on an Eagles game. Once again, the 23-20 loss to the Redskins scored just UNDER the closing total.

So far, the Eagles games have combined for an average of 41-points (50+30+41+43=164/4), with the Eagles contributing an average of 19.5 of those points scored and conceding 21.5 of those points.

 

Saints vs. Eagles Totals Betting
By the stats, the totals for this game of 49-to-49.5-points is somewhat high when the Saints are averaging 47.5-points and the Eagles are averaging just 41-points. It seems old habits and perceptions diehard. It’s well and good to persist with preconceived notions about a Chip Kelly offense in Philly and a Saints offense that’s lit up the league in seasons past. But NFL bettors must share in the realism that these offenses aren’t living up to the hype right now. Two things are worth keeping in mind: Drew Brees is also not 100% yet and still appears to have shoulder trouble, and Philly on the defensive side of the ball (we haven’t talked much about it but should) hasn’t been too shabby by allowing 21.5-points per game.

All things being considered, the total of 49.5-points does appear to be overly optimistic. As a result, we recommend the UNDER for your NFL picks as a result.

NFL Picks: UNDER 49.5 (-110)  at 5Dimes

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