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New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave reacts to making a first-down reception against Philadelphia Eagles safety Reed Blankenship as we look at our Saints vs. Chiefs MNF Parlay.
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave reacts to making a first-down reception against Philadelphia Eagles safety Reed Blankenship. Photo by Stephen Lew/Imagn Images.

While it won’t feel good to fade Patrick Mahomes if this is the night he finally rights the ship while returning to his regular level of play, the circumstances seem right for another ugly win from the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday, this time against the New Orleans Saints.

Kansas City enters the contest leading the Super Bowl odds, while the Saints are among the long shots.

Our Saints vs. Chiefs MNF parlay based on our best Monday Night Football odds is rooted in seeing an ugly game from the Kansas City offense as it tries to find its footing after losing Rashee Rice to a serious knee injury.

Saints vs. Chiefs parlay: Monday Night Football

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Saints +5.5 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Under 43 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Derek Carr Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+205) ⭐⭐⭐

Combined odds: +1200 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 7.69%

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SGP predictions for Saints vs. Chiefs

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Saints +5.5 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Both the Saints and Chiefs have gone 3-1 against the spread so far this season. But New Orleans has established a bit of an edge with its play on the road that makes us like the Saints while getting a handful of points.

Mike Spector is leaning toward New Orleans too as part of his Saints vs. Chiefs prediction.

Road warriors?

The Saints have gone 2-0 as a road underdog this season, rocking the Cowboys outright in a 44-19 Week 2 bout and squeaking out a cover during a two-point loss last week on the road against the Atlanta Falcons.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have recorded a single-possession win during each of their games, with several coming down to the final play.

That’s just not a recipe for trusting Kansas City to cover a 5.5-point spread against a Saints team that's shown so well in road environments, especially with Rashee Rice now on the injured reserve. Patrick Mahomes has been playing mistake-prone football, and with another of his weapons out, I don’t see the Chiefs running away with this one.  

The Saints are +5.5, with only DraftKings (-112) straying from the standard -110 odds across our best sportsbooks.

Under 43 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Saints lead the NFL in scoring average, churning out a remarkable 31.8 points per game. The Chiefs have scored relatively well too, ranking in the middle of the pack with a 23.0 average.

So why in the world is this total so low?

Don’t fall into the trap?

The NFL is full of trap lines throughout the season. A bet can often end poorly if you get too caught up in simplifying everything and looking at recent trends and assuming those patterns will continue. The number sitting at 43 looks way too inviting and makes me wonder what the oddsmakers know that we don’t.

Obviously, we know the Chiefs could endure some issues due to injuries and Mahomes’ recent play. But are the Saints going to crumble offensively, too? It’s possible, and a 15-12 Week 3 loss to the Eagles showed exactly what that might look like.

But something tells me we’re getting an ugly game on Monday night. FanDuel is setting the total at 43.5, which could be a valuable hook compared to the 43-point total at the rest of our best sports betting sites.

Derek Carr Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+205) ⭐⭐⭐

We’re looking to thread the needle in this matchup while predicting the Saints to keep the contest close in a low-scoring affair, but also calling our shot on the precise scoring method for whatever points the road team does score.

Juicy odds on a Carr legacy game?

Derek Carr has cooled off, throwing just one touchdown pass over the past two weeks after a torrid start when he chucked five touchdown tosses in his first two outings. But the early success tells us he’s capable against a Chiefs defense that's been more prone to permitting passing touchdowns (1.3 per game) than rushing scores (0.5 per game) this season.

The odds are considerably better when playing this parlay at DraftKings (+1200). But knowing we might need the final score to land exactly on 43 points to thread this needle, we’re also willing to play the SGP at FanDuel with its +904 odds and a 43.5-point total if you’re worried about a push.

A $10 wager on this parlay at DraftKings would profit $120.00.

If Carr erupts, Phil Wood thinks Alvin Kamara will be on the other end of a few passes as part of his Saints vs. Chiefs MNF prop bets.

Saints vs. Chiefs odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Saints vs. Chiefs
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 66 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph SE
  • Favorite: Chiefs -5.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

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