Saints 2018 NFL Schedule Betting Breakdown: Feeling an Early Brees

Jay Pryce

Sunday, April 22, 2018 4:29 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 22, 2018 4:29 PM UTC

The Saints own the league's second-toughest schedule, highlighted by four games against 2017 playoff teams in a five-game stretch. Check it out here and look at our favorite betting spots.

Repeating as NFC South champion won't be easy for New Orleans, if nothing else because of its schedule and the competitiveness of its division.

Below you will find the Saints’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds, 2017 win totals and 2018 pre-scheduled figures, and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.

2017 SU Record: 11-5 (7.6 avg. margin)

2017 ATS Record: 8-8 (4.3 avg. margin)

2017 Average Line: -3.3

2017 Win Total: 8 (+100)

2018 Win Total (pre-schedule): 9.5 (-130)

2018 Strength of Schedule: T-2, opponents were 137-119 (.535)

Three Games to Back ATS

Buccaneers, Week 1; Browns, Week 2; Redskins, Week 8

Don’t be shocked to see the Saints offense score 35-plus in each of their first three home games in 2018. The Buccaneers (23.9 points per game), Browns (25.6) and Redskins (24.2) ranked in the bottom 10 scoring defenses in 2017. Quarterback Drew Brees is 13-3 SU and 11-5-1 ATS at the Superdome in the first half of any season (prior to Week 9) squaring off against units surrendering 23.5 points or more the previous year. New Orleans averages 34.1 points per game in this scenario. Brees throws for 314.9 yards (8.1 yards per pass), 2.6 TDs, and 1.2 INTs. The team is winning by 10.8 points per game, easily topping a -6.1 line by 4.7 points.

Three Games to Fade ATS

@Ravens, Week 7; @Vikings, Week 8

Brees is just 9-21 SU (16-14 ATS) as a starter on the road against a team earning a positive point differential the prior season when catching points on the NFL odds board. If opposing defenses also allowed fewer than 19.5 points per game, the record slips to 2-12 SU (6-8 ATS). This will likely be the scenario at Baltimore and Minnesota. Saints lose by 6.0 points per game, scoring a measly 21.9 on average. A line less than two field goals is fade material.

@Panthers, Week 15

The Saints, with Brees under center, have dropped six of their last eight straight up and against the spread when an opponent has seven days or more to prepare. This is the situation when they travel to Bank of America Stadium in late December to take on division rivals Panthers. The game is on a Monday night. Brees has dropped his last three primetime games on this day of the week by 8 points or more, last winning and covering a spread in 2012.

Trap Game Potential

@Bengals, Week 10

Sandwiched between a pair of home dates against the NFC’s top two scoring offenses from last season, the Eagles and Rams, the Saints could easily overlook the attack at Cincinnati. Brees is just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS against AFC North opponents in his career, too.

comment here