While I have already released my team props, and am about to release my broader player props, I thought it would be nice to add in some quarterback-specific props into the equation. You can also check out my props on Peyton Manning, but for this one, it’s all about the wonder kid, Russell Wilson. Both of these props are courtesy of Bovada sportsbook.
Total TD Passes
Unlike my prop on Manning, I am going with the exact number of touchdown passes from Wilson, and I think the best bet is just one. The NFL Odds have one-touchdown priced at +150, and considering how much the Hawks will want to run the ball in this one, I could see only one passing TD from Wilson. His ability to tuck the ball and run one in for a touchdown also really adds to the value of this prop. There will probably be at least one instance in this game where he is in the red zone and a pass play breaks down and he runs the ball in instead of throwing it.
His price for zero TD passes isn’t bad either, but I think one is a much safer option. Wilson has tossed only one touchdown pass this entire postseason, and so far through the Hawks’ two games these playoffs, he has less passing attempts combined than Manning did in one game. However with the Broncos’ secondary banged up and hurting after the loss of Chris Harris, I see Wilson lobbing one into the end zone, especially since Percy Harvin looks good to go. His presence gives this prop a lot more value in my eyes.
My Pick: 1 TD Pass (+150)
Total rush yards on first attempt
I think this prop may be unique to Bovada, as I haven’t seen it anywhere else as of yet. At 5 ½ yards, I think the under might be the play on the prop of Wilson’s first rush attempt. Wilson has only ran the ball a total of eight times this postseason, and he has netted only 16 yards on those eight attempts. The Niners limited him to three carries for zero yards, and while the Broncos are not quite as good as the Niners at stopping the run, Denver’s run defense has been very good this year and in the playoffs especially.
Good run defenses like the Broncos have held Wilson’s running game in check this season. In his last four games against top 10 rushing defenses (San Francisco twice along with Arizona and St. Louis) Wilson rushed the ball 13 times for 33 yards, and if it wasn’t for a long 27-yard run against the Cardinals, Wilson would have only 12 carries for 6 yards in those four games. Looking at the Hawks’ last four games overall including the playoffs, if you take away that long 27-yard scamper against the Cards, Wilson has 20 yards rushing in his last 14 carries.
Even though there is some chalk with this play at -125, I think under 5 ½ yards is a great wager on Wilson’s first carry. It will likely come early in the game when the Broncos’ defense still has plenty of energy and adrenaline, and I doubt Pete Carroll Gets fancy enough at the beginning of the game to bust out a long run with Wilson on his first carry. My money is on a broken pass play run for two or three yards, giving us the value and the cash for our NFL picks.
My Pick: UNDER 5 ½ yards (-125)