How Have NFL Teams Fared With and Without Their Starting RB?

Coming into Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season, running back injuries continue to plague the league. We look into some of the numbers to determine whether they really matter to team success.

Times have changed in the NFL. Running backs are not seen as the focal point of the offense in the same way that they would have been a generation ago. Since that is the case, does it even matter when a team loses its starting running back to injury?

The answer probably is, it depends.

This question becomes even more important this week because star running backs Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings) and Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers) are out with injuries. They join Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans), and Michael Carter (New York Jets), among the starting running backs on the sidelines.

Next Man Up

NFL teams pride themselves on a “next man up” mentality, so that the next player on the depth chart can rise to the responsibility when a starter goes down. That is easier at some positions than others and it sure appears that running back might be a position that is easy enough to replace.

A look at starting running backs that have missed at least two games so far this season indicates that, for many teams, there is not much difference to be found in results with and without their starting running back.

Do Running Back Injuries Matter?

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Rare Exceptions

That does not mean that there is no effect at all because some teams might have a better second-string running back or there is more of a drop-off from a star running back to his replacement.

Like, if you want to take the position that Henry, McCaffrey, or Kamara mean more to their teams than the average running back, that is a reasonable enough stance. The records of those teams with and without their star runners bear that out.

The decline in value to the Tennessee Titans from Henry to Adrian Peterson, D’Onta Foreman, or Dontrell Hilliard is notable and expected.

The New Orleans Saints have not been the same team with Kamara out of the lineup. It was even more challenging once backup Mark Ingram was sidelined, too.

The same goes for the Carolina Panthers when McCaffrey was replaced by rookie Chuba Hubbard the first time around.

However, looking at starting running backs that have missed multiple games this season, it appears that many teams can do just as well without the No. 1 runner on the depth chart.

How Bettors can Benefit

This is a very small sample, based on what has occurred through the first 12 weeks of one season. However, it is worth keeping in mind when the injury report comes out.

It likely isn't as impactful for betting lines when most RBs are going to be out of the lineup. In many cases, beyond the elite tier of running backs, the next man up will be just fine.

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